The Book of Stromance – The Official EFL Web Site

The good people at Baseball Prospectus have evaluated our rookie draft. They are not impressed.

Here is what each team did in the Rookie Draft, according to BP’s projections for 2015:

— ENTRY DENIED —

Oh, yeah, I forgot.

Before I can let you see the results of my little study, the GF Human Subjects Research Ethics Committee requires me to warn you that BP’s projections are based on a very high definition of “replacement level” (ie, about 55 wins per season) so they usually look a lot lower than other projections.

Also BP is, umm, not necessarily the industry standard anymore, so sometimes they are downright crazy.

Also: I did all the math in my head (adding up salaried and team WAR, caclulation $/win).

So please do not draw any conclusions or make any decisions based on this information. And proceed at your own risk.

OK, now we’re good to go:

`Canberra: 5 players, $36,000,000, + 3.5 WAR ($10,285,714 per win)`

1. (3) Jose Abreu ($11000) 4.5 WAR

1. (28) Daniel Norris ($10500) -0.1

1. (29) Shane Greene ($11000) -1.2

3. (3) Jake Smolinski ($2000) 0.7

4. (21) Cam Bedrosian ($1500) -0.4

NOTES: What a first round — three players! Here we see our first hard evidence of BP’s totally insane projections. Daniel Norris at less than replacement value, almost a run worse than Smolinski? The Kangaroos also traded away Jurickson Profar, which BP doesn’t deign to project for 2015, but which saved the ‘Roos $500,000, improving their $/w ratio to $10,142,857 per win.

`Kaline: 5 players, $22,500,000, + 4.3 WAR ($5,232,558 per win)`

1. (5) Marcus Stroman ($11000) 3.5 WAR (approx.)

2. (5) Christian Vazquez ($4000) 0.5

2. (12) Tyler Matzek ($3000) -0.7

2. (29) Carson Smith ($2000) 0.4

4. (5) Christian Colon ($2500) 0.6

Note: Stroman’s WAR is estimated at pre-injury levels based on projections from other projection systems. Stroman’s devastating injury cuts the Drive’s return from the draft t0 0.8 wins, meaning their cost skyrockets to $28,125,000 per win for 2015. I think the Wizard of Whidbey ought to write the Book of Stromance.

`Portland: 5 players, $24,250,000, + 2.9 WAR ($8,344,903 per win)`

1. (10) Mookie Betts ($11000) 2.2 WAR

1. (30) Dalton Pompey ($5500) 0.3

3. (10) Maikel Franco ($4000) 0.4

4. (13) Kyle Lobstein ($1000) -0.3

4. (16) Jorge Polanco ($2750) 0.0

NOTE: Apparently BP isn’t as confident in Polanco’s ability to get playing time as the Rosebuds are. BP thinks Polanco will only get 63 plate appearances all season.

`Cottage: 9 players, $29,000,000, + 3.6 WAR ($8,555,556 per win)`

1. (15) Jorge Soler ($11000) 2.0 WAR

2. (1) Arismendy Alcantara ($2000) 0.5

2. (15) Marco Gonzales ($5500) 0.3

3. (15) Kendall Graveman ($3000) -0.4

4. (3) John Holdzkom ($2750) 0.5

4. (10) Dilson Herrera ($2500) 0.2

4. (15) Chasen Shreve ($500) -0.1

5. (19) Matt Duffy ($750) 0.4

6. (10) Corey Knebel ($1000) 0.2

NOTE: The pressure is on the Cheese and Arismendy Alcantara, who shouldered his way into the second round of the draft even though his record so far looks awfully like Adeiny Hechavarria’s. Most of the league immediately (and viciferously) concluded the Cheese hadn’t learn anything from its early brush with melodious octosyllabic Latin players. This time the Cheese had octupled the pain by victimizing all its EFL rivals instead of just the hapless Woeverines! But BP might have the Cheese’s back, hinting at totally unexpected returns on Cheesy optimism. (BP even expects Hechavarria to create 0.6 WAR this year. Totally delusional.)

`Flint Hill: 4 players, $21,750,000, + 0.0 WAR (Infinite cost per win)`

1. (19) Joc Pederson ($11000) 2.3 WAR

2. (19) James McCann ($3250) 0.0

3. (28) Mike Foltynewicz ($6000) -2.5

4. (25) Anthony Ranaudo ($1500) 0.2

NOTE: This would be an historic draft result (0 wins costing over $20 million) except that immediately after the draft the Tornadoes traded Foltynewicz for Evan Gattis, cutting their net draft expenses to $16,250,000 and increasing their return to 4.2 wins. That’s only $3,869,060 per win! Possibly the lowest cost per win in the entire EFL.

In an instant the Tornados transported their draft from flatlined Kansas to magical Oz! Those shrewd Tornados: they know how to seize an opportunity and then discover it. Kind of the opposite of stromance.

`Peshastin: 8 players, $26,250,000, + 2.5 WAR ($10,500,000 per win)`

1. (27) Javier Baez ($11000) 0.9 WAR

3. (19) Brandon Finnegan ($4500) 0.0

3. (27) Nick Tropeano ($4000) 0.8

3. (30) Rymer Liriano ($1000) —

4. (27) Garin Cecchini ($2000) 0.1

4. (29) J.T. Realmuto ($1250) 0.1

4. (30) Michael Taylor ($1500) 0.6

5. (27) Jesus Aguilar ($1000) —

NOTE: BP apparently shares my concern about Baez’ strikeouts. But if Baez can get over that malady, the Pears’ draft will look very strong.

`Haviland: 7 players, $20,500,000, + 4.9 WAR ($4,183,673 per win)`

2. (3) Andrew Susac ($3000) 0.4 WAR

2. (28) Steven Souza ($8250) 3.8

2. (30) Jacob Lamb ($3750) 1.1

4. (19) George Farmer ($750) -0.2

4. (28) Kyle Parker ($500)

5. (10) Matt Barnes ($3750) -0.2

5. (28) Samuel Tuivailala ($500) 0.0

NOTES: So far this is the most successful draft in the entire league, if you don’t count the Tornados’ windfall in Evan Gattis. But it’s all built on BP’s sky-high prediction for Souza’s season. Fangraphs has him at 1.7 wins, ZIPs (usually generous) has him at 1.4.

`Old Detroit: 5 players, $21,500,000, + 3.2 WAR ($6,718,750 per win)`

2. (10) Gregory Polanco ($8500) 2.7 WAR

2. (27) Andrew Heaney ($8750) 0.6

3. (29) Anthony DeSclafani ($3000) -0.1

5. (29) Alex Guerrero ($500) 0.1

5. (30) Eddie Butler ($750) -0.1

NOTE: The Wolverines also acquired Jurickson Profar (lacking a BP rating) and a ticker for an upgrade in a future EFL rookie draft. Who knows how much the upgrade is worth, or if Profar will every play in the big leagues? He will cost the W’s an extra $500,000, jacking up their 2015 costs from the draft to $6,857,572 per win.

`Pittsburgh: 0 players, $0, + 0 WAR (incalculable cost per win)`

What…?

The Alleghenys’ refusal to successfully bid on any rookies confounded the rest of the league. Here is our dominant franchise, defending yet another league championship, spending $0 on 0 players in a rookie draft? Why would he do such a thing?

Well, consider this: we added a total of 48 players in our draft, worth a total of 27.1 net wins at a cost of $196,250,000. That’s $7,241,697 per win in 2015! That’s about 6 times what a win was costing us going into the draft (admittedly, based on the more generous Fangraphs WAR ).

Maybe the Alleghenys figured all this out. They decided not to join in the spending frenzy. And BP supports the Pittsburgh perspective.

I suspect that if every EFL owner studies this data and takes it to heart, I’ll be the only one who even shows up at next year’s Rookie Draft. And even then, it’ll only because it’s my job as Commissioner. Sure, I’ll probably bid on a player or two while I’m there…but you all can spend the time studying up on the free agent draft, where (apparently) the real gains are to be found.

Or maybe the Alleghenys are going to win with a team full of debutants!?