A Just-So Draft

A rookie draft in the EFL is supposed to accomplish all the following:

–Nothing should come easy. Computer picks should frustrate us all a moderate amount. Fellow EFL owners should frustrate us all almost more than we can bear.

— We should all feel like we wrested some of what we  wanted away from the draft and each other, through guile, guts, and willpower.

— We should all feel like someone else did the same at our expense.

— The teams who finished lower in the standings last time should have a little more success than the ones who finished near the top.

 

I can check off each item on the list, from my perspective.  And I have already had a note from one owner who felt this was one of the funnest drafts ever.  Thanks to everyone who made it go smoothly — John for the technology and hosting us, Mark J for the coffee, and Dave for the treats and the improved recordkeeping.

 

So we all won in the sense we had a mutually enjoyable draft.   What a nice thought…

 

Aw, come on, who am I kidding?  What’s the point of a draft that everyone wins?  Obviously someone did better than everyone else.  What we want to know is “who”!

 

And I have the answer, measuring success in three different ways, from crudest to best:

1> Who got the most players?

2> Who added the most projected wins to his team?

3> Who spent his money the wisest — that is, who got his wins cheapest?

 

1.  The team that got the most players was:  The DC Balk!  We drafted as a group 55 players, which would average 5.5 each.  The Balk came away with 14 of them. In a very distant second place were Cottage and Canberra, each with 7.  The teams with the fewest: Kaline and Pittsburgh, with 2 each.
2. The team that added the most projected wins?  I looked up each drafted player on Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs to see how many wins above replacement they were projected to produce.  Then I averaged the BP and FG WARs, and added them up for each team.  Here is how we finished in terms of adding wins to our stockpiles of talent:

DC	6.8
KD	6.55
PR	6.3
CK	5.9
OD	5.65
PP	5.45
CC	5.45
HD	4.65
FH	4.15
PA	1.35

Notice how the number of wins we added correlates pretty strongly with how many losses we suffered last season.  This means the draft worked to give weaker teams a chance to catch up a little.

 

3.  Who spent most effectively?  Cottage spent most… period, at $43.5 million.  DC was right behind at $41.0 million.  Pittsburgh spent the least: only $7.75 million — which was $7.75 million more than the Allegheny’s spent last year. (Welcome back to the Rookie Draft, Mark!)

The average EFL team spent $5,023,950 for each win it added to its projected WAR.  Cottage spent $7,981,650 per win.  Two teams were super-efficient, spending only about half as much as the average team per win:  the Rosebuds spent only $2,777,780 per win, which is amazing, but not as amazing as the Kaline Drive, who got their 6.55 wins at the low, low price of $2,366,41 per win.

 

So — who won the draft?  DC added the most wins, and got the most players, but Kaline and Portland also added a lot of wins and did it much  more effectively.  Sometimes less is more — and I’d say, by getting the second most wins with the least amount of money spent, Kaline Drive won the draft.

 

Congratulations, Kaline.  So far you’re having the best season of anyone in the EFL!

 

 

Team	Players	$$	fWAR	WARP	Average	$$/War
Haviland		28250	5.4	3.9	4.65	6075.268817
	Miguel Sano	11500	3.5	3.1	3.3	3484.848485
	Gary Sanchez	4750	0.6	0.1	0.35	13571.42857
	Miguel Almonte	1000	0.1	0.2	0.15	6666.666667
	Vincent Velasquez	11000	1.2	0.5	0.85	12941.17647
Pittsburgh		7750	1.1	1.6	1.35	5740.740741
	Socrates Brito	1500	-0.1	0.1	0	#DIV/0!
	Stephen Piscotty	6250	1.2	1.5	1.35	4629.62963
Old Detroit		19500	5.4	5.9	5.65	3451.327434
	Kyle Schwarber	11500	2.7	3.5	3.1	3709.677419
	Austin Hedges	750	0.2	0.4	0.3	2500
	Brandon Drury	2000	0.1	0.1	0.1	20000
	Michael Broadway	1000	0.1	0.3	0.2	5000
	John Lamb	3750	1.5	1.2	1.35	2777.777778
	Colin Rea	500	0.8	0.4	0.6	833.3333333
Flint Hill		17500	2.6	5.7	4.15	4216.86747
	Brian Johnson	1000	0.3	0.5	0.4	2500
	Alex Meyer	1000	0.5	0.4	0.45	2222.222222
	Tony Zych	4000	0.2	0.2	0.2	20000
	Byron Buxton	11500	1.6	4.6	3.1	3709.677419
Peshastin		35250	5	5.9	5.45	6467.889908
	Severino Gonzalez	1000	0	0.5	0.25	4000
	Raisel Iglesias	11500	2.9	2	2.45	4693.877551
	Frankie Montas	4000	0	0.1	0.05	80000
	Joey Gallo	7250	0.8	1.1	0.95	7631.578947
	Trea Turner	11500	1.3	2.2	1.75	6571.428571
Cottage		43500	6.5	4.4	5.45	7981.651376
	Archie Bradley	4000	0.7	0.3	0.5	1.4
	Tim Cooney	4250	0.3	0.3	0.3	1
	Luis Severino	9750	2.3	1.5	1.9	1.210526316
	Matt Wisler	4750	0.5	0.7	0.6	7916.666667
	Greg Bird	3250	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Max Kepler	6000	0.1	0.1	0.1	60000
	Addison Russell	11500	2.6	1.5	2.05	5609.756098
Canberra		36500	6.1	5.7	5.9	6186.440678
	Shawn Armstrong	3000	0.3	0.4	0.35	8571.428571
	Adrian Houser	750	0.1	0	0.05	15000
	Stephen Matz	11500	2.2	1.6	1.9	6052.631579
	Austin Barnes	2250	0.2	0	0.1	22500
	Michael Conforto	12500	2.1	2.5	2.3	5434.782609
	Richie Shaffer	500	0	0.1	0.05	10000
	Blake Swihart	6000	1.2	1.1	1.15	5217.391304
Kaline		15500	7.4	5.7	6.55	2366.412214
	Kris Bryant	11500	5.8	4.8	5.3	2169.811321
	Carlos Perez	4000	1.6	0.9	1.25	3200
Portland		17500	7.1	5.5	6.3	2777.777778
	Adam Conley	1000	0.3	0.4	0.35	2857.142857
	Jonathan Gray	4000	2.3	1.2	1.75	2285.714286
	Tyler Wagner	500	0.1	0.1	0.1	5000
	Carlos Correa	11500	4.4	3.7	4.05	2839.506173
	Cheslor Cuthbert	500	0	0.1	0.05	10000
DC		41000	6.4	7.1	6.8	6074.074074
	Elvis Araujo	2250	0	0.3	0.15	15000
	Kyle Barraclough	1250	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Jorge Lopez	4750	0.4	0.2	0.3	15833.33333
	Henry Owens	5750	0.2	0.3	0.25	23000
	Ramon Cabrera	500	0.2	-0.3	-0.05	-10000
	Matt Duffy (Hou)	2250	0.1	0.2	0.15	15000
	Tayler Featherston	750	0	0.5	0.25	3000
	Ramon Flores	500	0.5	0.3	0.4	1250
	Adonis Garcia	3500	1	0.6	0.8	4375
	Hector Olivera	2750	0.8	0.7	0.75	3666.666667
	Scott Schebler	3500	0.1	0.8	0.45	7777.777778
	Corey Seager	11500	2.8	3	2.9	3965.517241
	Giovanny Urshela	1750	0.3	0.5	0.4	4375
Average EFL Team		26225	5.3	5.14	5.22	5023.94636
League Totals		262250	53	51.4	52.2	5023.94636
Ave Player	55	4768.2	1.0	0.9	0.9	5023.94636