ERA v. FIP? Depends who you ask

What if we used FIP instead of ERA for our pitchers?

FIP stands for “Fielding Independent Pitching.”  It attempts to isolate what the pitcher is responsible for from what the fielders behind him are doing. The basic assumption: pitchers control strikeouts, walks and homers (the three true outcomes).  Everything else is the fielders’ responsibility.

This is based on a study done several years ago by a guy named Voros something, who claimed to have demonstrated that pitchers have no effect on the success batters have when they put balls in play.  When a batter puts a Clayton Kershaw ball into play, said Voros, he has as much chance of getting a base hit as when he puts a Burch Smith ball into play. Kershaw is great because he strikes out so many players.

I understand that Voros’ findings have been modified since then, so some effects (ground ball rate?) do depress batter success on balls in play. A little.  But the overwhelming proportion of a pitcher’s relative success comes in maximizing strikeouts and minimizing walks and homers.

I have added FIP to every team’s stats that I pull from Baseball Prospectus.  It makes no difference to our league — the database only pays attention to IP and earned runs allowed.  But it might help us see whether our pitching is more likely to get better or worse from here on out.

Here is a chart of our teams’ raw ERA and FIP, showing how the standings would be affected if we used FIP instead of ERA .  This assumes you use all your pitchers 100% and ignores your replacement pitchers (if any, whose ERA and FIP are equal at 7.50):

TEAM	W	L	Pct	GB	RS	Adj RA	ERA	FIP
Pittsburgh Alleghenys	15	7	0.663	0.0	107.2	76.4	4.28	3.14
Haviland Dragons	14	8	0.634	0.6	113.8	86.5	2.59	3.21
O. Detroit Wolverines	13	7	0.643	0.7	119.4	88.9	4.35	4.09
Canberra Kangaroos	13	7	0.639	0.8	102.8	77.3	3.48	3.63
Portland Rosebuds	12	10	0.527	3.0	93	88.2	3.77	4.04
Flint Hill Tornadoes	9	11	0.471	4.2	86.2	91.4	3.78	3.88
Cottage Cheese	9	11	0.465	4.3	75.6	81.1	4.2	3.98
Kaline Drive	9	13	0.412	5.5	93.6	111.9	5.3	4.52
Peshastin Pears	9	13	0.390	6.0	91.7	114.7	3.99	4.2
D.C. Balk	6	14	0.301	7.6	72	109.7	4.15	3.51

What an exciting pennant race that would be — 4 teams within a game of each other!  Only 7.6 games from first to last! But also notice which team would be in first.  Yipes.

Maybe it’s just as well we are still so 20th-Century about our pitching.  Here are our REAL standings, using honest old ERA.

Haviland: W 1, L 1;  13 – 12.

Canberra: L, 2- 3.

Old Detroit: “L”, 7- 6.

Portland: L, 4 – 5.

Pittsburgh:  W,  8 – 5.

Flint Hill: “W”, 7 – 9

Cottage: DNP, 1 -3.

Peshastin: W, 8 – 5.

Kaline:  W (-1), L 3; 5 – 19.

DC: “W”, 5 – 9.