EFL and Unpredictability

EFL Standings for 2016

Portland: L, 3 – 3. (.228, .286, .351; no pitching).  Take the Rosebuds, for example.  They cruised along early in the season, content to run just behind the leaders.  Then in July they made a strong move and took the lead. They also made a series of shrewd deals to strengthen their roster, and drafted well.  They were already a first place team at the end of July. Add in the moves that took effect in August, and I thought they would move steadily and inevitably away.

So far, it hasn’t happened. They have collapsed these last two games. Probably this is just random statistical noise.  Probably the Rosebuds are still the team to beat.  But yesterday they didn’t look like it. Their killer B’s (Betts and Broxton) went a combined 4 for 6 with two homers and a walk, but the other 14 hitters went 9 for 51 with a double and four walks (.176, .236, .198).

Old Detroit;  W, 9 – 3.  (.424, .459, .576; 19.7 ip, 7 er). Meanwhile, the Wolverines looked tired.  The vaunted offense had dried up.  The not as vaunted pitching wasn’t vaunt-worthy, either.  The W’s looked like a team whose time had passed, who would fade in the coming Age of the Rosebuds.  Then, out of nowhere, comes a day like this.  Only one hitter went 0 for the day — and it was Jose Iglesias, who is only 33% active.  (On the other hand, only one hitter had a 5.000 OPS on the day, and it was the 100% inactive Sean Rodriguez.)  The rest of the roster went 13 for 29 with two doubles and 3 walks (.448, .500, .517).

This kind of outburst seems to happen once every two weeks.  It seems to be clustered with one or two other good days of lesser glory.  I keep expecting my .600+ team to be about that every day.  But .600-ish is a place my team only visits in passing, as it transits from a .500-ish (or worse) team on most days to brief glories when it plays for a day as a .900-ish team.

Haviland:  W, 4 – 3. (.244, .320, .356;  2 ip, 1 er).  See?  This is the kind of line the W’s normally produce. Good allocation gives the Dragons a win but there isn’t really much here.  Miguel Sano, who has been teetering on being sent to the minors, made a case for himself with a 3 for 5 with a homer. But five Dragons went hitless over 17 at bats, and the result was not a building block for a championships (even though the Dragons gained a little on the wilting Rosebuds).  I haven’t been paying close enough attention, but have the Dragons been having the same “mediocrity interrupted by bursts of glory” experience as the Wolverines?

Pittsburgh: W, 8  – 1.  (.276, .344, .655;  8 ip, 1 er). See? The Allegheny, I am certain, do not have the bursts of glory approach to things.  They are more implacable. Their pattern for three years has been steady slow rises until about this point in the season, and then an irresistible surge to the top, everyone else draining off them like seawater from a surfacing submarine. James Taillon faced the W’s Anthony DeSclafani.  DeSclafani pitched well — 6 ip, 2 er — but Taillon did better: 6 ip 1 er.  In my experience, once the Allegheny avalanche gets rolling, it rolls on steadily and unstoppably — which I guess I just got done saying.  This is why the Wolverines feel more like Scared Rabbits whenever the Alleghenys are just behind them. Like right now.

Peshastin: “L”, 6 – 4. (.265, .333, .571;  2 ip. 0 er). I can’t tell if the Pears are surging, or just caught in the wake of the surging Alleghenys.  Brett Eibner rewarded Pear confidence with a homer in three trips perhaps inspired by three homers from Pear middle infielders (2 by Devon Travis, one by Trea Turner).   The Pears took a “loss” but still gained on the leaders.  It is not out of the question that they could join the pack atop the standings for a pennant race, if they move a little quicker.  In MLB that means a nice little 7 game win streak. In EFL it’s hard to get a 7-game win streak.  Does the EFL suppress the dramatic comeback dreams of teams like the Pears? I don’t know.

Canberra:  L, 3 – 4.  (.257, .289. .343;  16 ip, 7 er).  The ‘Roos numbers look a lot like the Rosebuds, but the context is different.  Here they fit into the “long, gentle decline” narrative I was talking about yesterday better than in the “late surge?” motif I just used for the adjacent Pears. Had Martin Pere escaped with less than 5 earner runs allowed in 7 innings, this picture would look better.

Flint Hill:  “W”, 3 – 5. (.281, .324, .375;  1 ip, 0 er).  I had forgotten Evan Gattis was in the league until I noticed his 3 for 4 with a double yesterday, the top offensive output among the Tornados.  Tornado Killer B’s. Bogaerts and Buxton, combined to go 1 for 7 with a double play to wipe out the 1.  So, yeah, I guess they still killed something.

Cottage: W,  9 – 4. (.333, .378, .667;  5.3 ip, 1 er).  Monster offense again, for the second dauy in a row, this time accompanied by good pitching.  Look, the Cheese are near the bottom of the league but had pone of the best days in the EFL.  This isn’t supposed to happen. Wasn’t this super day supposed to go to the Rosebuds or maybe the Dragons?  How did the Cheese come into possession?  I suspect pilfery.

Kaline:  W, 9 – 3. (.364, .432, .697;  7 ip, 2 er).  The Drive saw the Cheese and raised them — putting together the best day of any EFL team from a spot even lower in the standings.  So, Wizard, would you rather have a .444 winning percentage every day, or have an occasional day like yesterday and pay for it with days under .444?

On the other hand, the Drive deserved a great day after sending me a 1985 Sporting News baseball season preview with its confident prediction that the Cardinals would finish last in the NL East, and its glowing predictions of prosperity for the Mariners, led by Alvin Davis, Mark Langston, and the rookie Harold Reynolds.

DC:  L, 2 – 7. (.182, .229, .242; 19 ip, 14 er).  Maybe it isn’t a good idea for the Commissioner to mutter about how he doesn’t understand the workings of the EFL in front of a newby who’s just suffered such an ugly bottom line.  If baseball is incoherent, what’s the hope of escaping such days?

I take solace in the Sporting News Tom sent me.  Their preseason predictions were wildly off, at least as bad as mine about the EFL.  And I can say this: others have been where the Balk are, and are not there any longer.  There is hope there, even if we can’t quite explain our day-to-day experiences.