The Mystery of the Disappearing Offense

As I’ve worked with our stats this season, the feeling has been growing that our offense is down from last year.  So this morning I checked.

EFL average RC/G in 2017:   5.20

EFL average RC/G in 2018:  4.26

I was right!  We’re creating almost a full run per game less than we did last season.

Just to confirm my impression, I also checked our ERAs.

EFL average ERA in 2017:   4.11

EFL average ERA in 2018:  4.08

Woah!  That’s hardly any different. Our hitters are down a run a game, but our pitchers are doing about the same?  How can this be?

So I checked MLB’s numbers:

MLB RC/G    MLB ERA       EFL RC/G        EFL ERA

2017               4.65               4.35                   5.20                  4.11

2018              4.38               3.98                   4.26                  4.08

Our hitters last year created over half a run per game more than MLB hitters.  This attests to our superior lineups.  Our pitchers last year had ERA’s about a quarter of a run better than MLB pitchers. This also confirms our superiority, and explains how we averaged 94 wins per team last year.

But this year, so far, in 75 total games spread among the 11 of us, our hitters are 0.1 RC/G worse than the MLB average, and our pitchers are also 0.1 earned runs per game worse.  Suddenly we’re a little dumber than the average MLB team management?

DO NOT POINT YOUR FINGERS AT BROOKLAND!  They are soaring higher than most of us did as expansion teams. The Outs have not dumbed down the league. In fact, the evidence so far indicates the Outs will dominate us in a year or two.

Instead, point those accusing digits at the Commissioner. His competitive rebalancing program is working!  We apparently have surrendered a huge part of our former competitive advantage.

But the dumbness of our league, or of our Commissioner, is not the issue here. The issue is how to explain a huge decline in offense that registers as only a small decline in ERA.  MLB isn’t having this problem.  Its decline in offense is commensurate with its decline in ERA — the offensive decline is 0.3 runs per game. The pitching decline is 0.4 runs per game.  That small difference can be explained by cold weather. Errors are probably up a little, or a little more damaging, due to the very high percentage of games being played in wintry conditions so far.  If this is the explanation, ERA and RC/G should converge, at least as compared to 2017.

Apparently, tentatively, our rebalancing rules have moved our rosters much closer to MLB average. Somehow they had far more impact on our offense than on our pitching. Last year our advantage in pitching was substantial — a quarter of a run per game. But our advantage in hitting was unconscionable: more than half a run per game.

Now both advantages have been eliminated, at least in the very early going.  This shows up in our W/L records, too: as a league we are almost exactly at .500 (38-38).  Will our superior intellects impose themselves on reality, and restore us to our dominant positions as the season progresses?  And will we again find that easier to do on the offensive side? It will be interesting to see.