I have never been a fan of cursing. Its defenders claim cursing offers a way to give color, impact, and even creativity to expression. I say it scores badly on all counts. Cursing is lazy. What’s so creative about finding words in a gutter and putting them in your mouth? Wouldn’t it be more creative, colorful, and impactful to find a new way to express pain, outrage, or intensity? Something original, fashioned for the occasion, with one’s listeners in mind? You may as well communicate using nothing but rubber stamps. At worst — and always — cursing is a form of violence, of elevating my desire for impact over any concern for my listeners. It’s a shortcut and crutch, like bringing a handgun to a birthday party, or sending a mass-produced love letter composed entirely of emoticons.
But now I come to defend a curse. Not a four-letter-word kind of curse. (This one happens to have five letters.) This is a primal curse, a cause-and-effect curse, a deep, dark, flooded cave of a curse where once you stumble in you might never get out.
We are speaking, of course, of the Trout Curse.
Maybe you’ve noticed that I seldom carry a topic over from one post to the next. Boredom is my bogeyman, the monster under my bed. Sequels are hard to do. There is a law of declining marginal utility in topics as well as goods. The second donut is not as precious as the first one, neither in coffee shops nor in blog posts.
But Jamie made me do this.
After my painstaking presentation of my discoveries about Trout Curse, Jamie channeled his inner Trump and bleated out two messages yesterday, first challenging and then acknowledging the existence of a Mike Trout Curse:
Message #1:
Title: Of what curse do you speak, commissioner?
Content (in its entirety):
I love the economy of expression.
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EFL Standings for 2018
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Portland Rosebuds | 58 | 35 | .629 | — | 497.7 | 373.8 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 56 | 39 | .593 | 3.1 | 431.9 | 356.7 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 53 | 39 | .581 | 4.5 | 410.0 | 349.1 |
| Brookland Outs | 53 | 41 | .565 | 5.8 | 500.1 | 440.1 |
| Cottage Cheese | 51 | 43 | .540 | 8.2 | 475.3 | 438.5 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 49 | 43 | .530 | 9.2 | 487.8 | 465.1 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 50 | 45 | .529 | 9.2 | 416.2 | 388.2 |
| Kaline Drive | 48 | 48 | .503 | 11.7 | 427.5 | 419.8 |
| Peshastin Pears | 44 | 49 | .471 | 14.6 | 399.6 | 426.8 |
| Haviland Dragons | 44 | 52 | .454 | 16.3 | 410.1 | 452.8 |
| D.C. Balk | 38 | 54 | .411 | 20.2 | 390.2 | 470.6 |
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Portland: DNP, 6 – 3. (30 PA, .280, .379, .440; 5.3 ip, 3 er, 5.06 ERA). Look again at the “text” of the first of Jaimie’s messages. I think he’s trying to draw our attention to the Tornados’ position atop the July standings. Fair enough, though temporary. But also note how tightly packed most of the league is right behind the Tornados. It must be nice to have a .758 winning percentage in July. But the Rosebuds are enjoying a .738 run at the same time. If the Tornados are 9.2 games behind the Rosebuds, and are winning just 2% more of their games, the T’s will need 450 games to catch up. Look for Flint Hill to pass Portland sometime around the end of August… 2020.
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Old Detroit: L, 4 – 5. (28 PA, .174, .321, .261; 7 ip, 3 er, 3.86 ERA). The W’s have never owned Mike Trout… but they could have. They took Matt Moore in the rookie draft before Pittsburgh took Trout. The W’s have been paying the price ever since. The Trout Curse reaches further than you think.
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But let’s take a break from the gloom to enjoy a beam of sunlight, in this case breaking through the clouds surrounding the so-far-disappointing Josh Bell. Bell, formerly a prime prospect at first base for the Pirates and Wolverines, went 0 for 1 yesterday… with three walks. That made a striking .000, .750, .000 batting line. Once I realized how good that was, I got all tingly inside. Think about it: a whole team of players who walk three times for every time they make an out. If they hit into a double play every time it was possible, such a team would score at least 18 times a game — except home games, when they would almost always score at least 16 times. If they avoided double plays they would score at least 45 runs at home, 51 on the road — but actually, that would require them to start the game with an out and (of course) end it that way, too, in which case their OBP would be slightly under .750. If they actually end up with a .750 OBP they would score 48 at home and 54 on the road (on average).
Go Josh Bell! Teach your fellow Wolverines your tricks.
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Canberra: W (-1), L 2; 6 – 10. (33 PA, .323, .364, .387; 18.7 ip, 12 er, 5.79 ERA). Canberra is about as far from Mike Trout as you can get. So the Trout Curse is probably NOT what happened to the Kangaroos yesterday: Corey Kluber had a bad day. He pitched 7.3 innings with 9 strikeouts, all fine so far. But he allowed 2 homers and 6 earned runs total. It was one of his worst starts ever. I heard someone say yesterday that the Indians had won over 70 in a row of Kluber’s starts when they scored 4 or more runs. They scored 4 yesterday but still lost. With Blake Snell also struggling (3 ip, 3 er), the ‘Roos were destined to lose, and maybe even destined to lose twice.
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Brookland: L, 5 – 5. (29 PA, .280, .379, .440; 5.3 ip, 3 er, 5.06 ERA). Charlie Morton gave up 3 runs in 4.3 innings pitched yesterday. This reminds us that our players are not machines, and can mess up our plans an any given day. On the other hand, Jose Bautista went 2 for 3 with a homer and a walk, despite having been certified as washed up.
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Cottage: “W”, 5 – 6. (36 PA, .258, .333, .387; 7 ip, 4 er, 5.14 ERA) Thursday was the day of the 5.00+ ERA, apparently, with 4 of the first 5 teams turning in such a number. (And although Scherzer’s ERA was a decent 3.86, his FIP Thursday was 6.25!) Whatever. The bottom line is this: the Cheese are still higher in the standings today than they were the day they agreed to trade Trout. On that day the Cheese were in 7th and the Tornados in 5th place. Today they have swapped places.
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Pittsburgh: L, 0 – 6. (31 PA, .194, .194, .226; 7.7 ip, 3 er, 3.52 ERA). The Alleghenys went 6 for 31 with a single double. You’d think they were from Kansas, with that flatline box score. And if I can refer you back once again to Jaimie’s first eloquent note: the second place team in July stats before yesterday’s games was the Alleghenys. Essentially, what Jamie was saying is this: the Tornados are coming, and we’re bringing the Alleghenys with us. Or, to put a more historically accurate spin on it: the Alleghenys are coming, and we’re tagging along.
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I’m surprised no one has pointed out the main apparent weakness in my claim to have proven the existence of a Mike Trout Curse: that the Alleghenys most definitely throve with Trout on their roster. However, they have also thriven just as much without him. I attribute the apparent Allegheny immunity to the Trout Curse to the even stronger magic of Mark Weinert, who once went an entire spring Rookie Draft without acquiring a single player — and then went right out and won the EFL pennant.
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Here’s a fascinating note: the three teams who have owned Mike Trout are clustered together in the the center of our standings. Four non-Trout teams, the three Trout teams, and then four more non-Trout teams. Members of the old Triumvirate are found in each cluster, so that does not seem to be the controlling factor.
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Flint Hill: L, 6 – 9. (45 PA, .308, .400, .436; 18.7 ip, 11 er, 5.30 ERA). It’s time to give due attention to the second of Jamie’s moving messages: a photo of a healthy James Paxton. Healthy, that is, until he was dragged kicking and screaming onto the Tornados to be chained to Mike Trout. When Paxton left last night’s start in Anaheim (yes, the Angels still play in Anaheim, despite their desperate attempts to obscure this fact), Paxton had completed 2/3 of an inning and surrendered 3 earned runs. In a gesture of brave defiance, he held Mike Trout to a single. This was an insult to Trout, since Paxton had already given up David Fletcher’s first career homer, and was about to serve up a homer to the ghost of Albert Pujols. At that very moment, the malevolent spirits attached to Mike Trout retaliated against his EFL teammate by inflicting lower back pain. Paxton was forced to leave having quadruple chulked, his Tornado career ERA jacked up to 4.02. (Later in the game, Austin Romine faced Trout and Pujols and got them both out. I fear for Austin Romine right now.)
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Kaline: L, 4 – 5. (33 PA, ..267, .333, .400; 1 ip 1 er, 9.00 ERA). I was listening to the Nationals game when Kelvin Herrera came in to relieve Scherzer in the 8th inning. Herrera walked two and served up a homer, but cleverly did the homer first so he only was charged with 1 earned run. The Nationals salvaged a win despite Herrera’s incompetence, but the Drive weren’t as fortunate.
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Peshastin: DNP, 0 – (-1). (17 PA, .313, .294, .500; 19.7 ip, 6 er, 2.75 ERA). Now we enter the region in the standings where we find almost all the teams who have spent zero days in first place this year. (Flint Hill never has, either, but he’s got Mike Trout now so that’s all taken care of!) Kaline and all the non-windstorms above them have been in first, even if they had to share it for the only day they were there (Pittsburgh). But first place looks like it will be elusive all year for these three… ummm… I can’t call them “triumvirates” because they aren’t in power (the “vires” part of “triumvirate”). I guess they’re the triumfeeblates, if weakness is the opposite of power.
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Of the three triumfeeblates, Peshastin is the most restive. Would a feeblate have James Taillon and Tyler Skaggs pitch 6 innings each, with one earned run each? Would its Troutliner, Devon Travis, go 4 for 4? If they aren’t careful, the Pears might end up above .500, which will play havoc with their draft strategy next spring.
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Haviland: “W”, 5 – 7. (30 PA, .367, .367, .567; 1 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). Bryce Harper probably doesn’t like being called a “feeblate.” So he hit a homer! But he made outs his other four trips to the plate. The slack got picked up by four other 1.000 OPS or greater hitters: Yonder Alonso (1.000), Ian Kinsler (1.200), Steven Souza (1.750) and Trout Line dweller Raimel Tapia (1 for 1, for a 2.000 OPS).
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D.C: L, 3 – 8. (28 PA, .231, .25o, .423; no pitching). Stud Andrew Benintendi, despite his best intentions, went or for 4 yesterday, making it hard for his team to put on too brave a show. They tried anyway, and Jorge Alfaro succeeded: 3 for 4 with a double and a homer.
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Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2018
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Boston Red Sox | 66 | 29 | .695 | — |
| New York Yankees | 61 | 31 | .663 | 3.5 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 56 | 39 | .593 | 9.7 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 50 | 45 | .529 | 15.7 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 48 | 45 | .516 | 17 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 50 | .457 | 22.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 26 | 68 | .277 | 39.5 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 53 | 39 | .581 | — |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 52 | 40 | .565 | 1.4 |
| Atlanta Braves | 51 | 40 | .560 | 1.9 |
| Washington Nationals | 47 | 46 | .505 | 6.9 |
| D.C. Balk | 38 | 54 | .411 | 15.6 |
| Miami Marlins | 39 | 56 | .411 | 15.9 |
| New York Mets | 37 | 54 | .407 | 15.9 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Cleveland Indians | 50 | 42 | .543 | — |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 49 | 43 | .530 | 1.3 |
| Minnesota Twins | 42 | 49 | .462 | 7.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 40 | 55 | .421 | 11.5 |
| Chicago White Sox | 31 | 61 | .337 | 19 |
| Kansas City Royals | 26 | 66 | .283 | 24 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 55 | 39 | .585 | — |
| Chicago Cubs | 52 | 38 | .578 | 1 |
| Brookland Outs | 53 | 41 | .565 | 1.9 |
| Cottage Cheese | 51 | 43 | .540 | 4.3 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 47 | 44 | .516 | 6.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 43 | 49 | .467 | 11 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 41 | 52 | .441 | 13.5 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Houston Astros | 62 | 34 | .646 | — |
| Seattle Mariners | 58 | 36 | .617 | 3 |
| Oakland A’s | 53 | 41 | .564 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 48 | 46 | .511 | 13 |
| Kaline Drive | 48 | 48 | .503 | 13.7 |
| Haviland Dragons | 44 | 52 | .454 | 18.4 |
| Texas Rangers | 40 | 54 | .426 | 21 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Portland Rosebuds | 58 | 35 | .629 | — |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 51 | 42 | .548 | 7.5 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 51 | 43 | .543 | 8 |
| San Francisco Giants | 49 | 46 | .516 | 10.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 48 | 45 | .516 | 10.5 |
| Peshastin Pears | 44 | 49 | .471 | 14.6 |
| San Diego Padres | 40 | 56 | .417 | 20 |