League Updates

How the EFL race shapes up: update

August 26, 2018
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It’s late Sunday evening, and I am just not getting around to posting Saturday results. Here are the standings after Satuday’s games:

EFL Through Saturday, August 25
Team Wins Losses Pct. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 84 47 .638 — 647.6 477.5
Portland Rosebuds 81 48 .626 1.8 673.7 513.1
Brookland Outs 75 53 .582 7.5 681.3 579.1
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 70 59 .540 12.9 675.0 629.2
Canberra Kangaroos 69 60 .531 14.1 590.9 560.1
Flint Hill Tornadoes 67 64 .510 16.7 588.8 574.1
Haviland Dragons 65 64 .501 18 593.0 588.3
Cottage Cheese 64 64 .498 18.3 627.1 629.2
Kaline Drive 64 65 .498 18.4 573.5 573.4
Peshastin Pears 60 69 .464 22.7 548.1 591.3
D.C. Balk 54 75 .421 28.3 547.1 642.9

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I posted in the wee hours of Sunday an update from Friday’s games.  Here are the top three teams in the standings after Friday:

EFL Through Friday, August 24
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 83 47 .635 — 633.8 472.9
Portland Rosebuds 80 48 .623 1.7 669.8 513.1
Brookland Outs 73 54 .578 7.6 673.2 576.8

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Here are those same three teams after Thursday’s games:

EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 82 47 .635 — 630.4 469.2
Portland Rosebuds 79 48 .623 1.8 666.0 510.5
Brookland Outs 73 53 .582 7.1 668.2 568.3

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After Wednesday?

EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 81 47 .633 — 622.6 466.2
Portland Rosebuds 79 48 .625 1.2 667.2 509.0
Brookland Outs 73 52 .580 7 661.4 564.6

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After Tuesday:

EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 80 47 .630 — 615.9 464.4
Portland Rosebuds 78 48 .621 1.3 661.1 508.5
Brookland Outs 72 52 .583 6.3 658.6 559.6

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After Monday:

EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 79 47 .631 — 613.7 461.6
Portland Rosebuds 78 47 .620 1.5 656.6 505.8
Brookland Outs 71 52 .579 6.7 650.7 556.9

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After last Sunday:

EFL
Team Wins Losses Pct. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 79 46 .633 — 608.5 454.3
Portland Rosebuds 78 47 .620 1.6 657.6 506.1
Brookland Outs 71 52 .577 7.2 650.7 559.1

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A week ago?

EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 78 46 .632 — 607.6 452.8
Portland Rosebuds 77 47 .620 1.5 654.4 503.2
Brookland Outs 70 52 .583 7.5 641.3 554.3

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Some things stand out to me:

  1.  Even though the W’s had a GREAT day on Saturday ( winning 14 – 5), the Rosebuds only lost 0.1 games in the standings (winning 4 – 0) … and the Outs GAINED o.1 games (winning 8 – 2).
  2. The standings have gone essentially unchanged in 8 days.  The Rosebuds and Wolverines have not moved outside the 1.2 – 1.8 games zone. The Outs advanced into the mid 6’s behind, but have now gone back to the mid- 7’s and holding.  This means these three teams have been almost perfectly matching each other for 8 days.
  3. The longer we go without the Rosebuds breaking the 1.0 games-behind barrier, the better for the W’s. (Well, duhh!) Yes, I know this is obvious, but even the greatest commentators have to spend some time saying obvious things.  And from it you’d expect the W’s to be rejoicing!
  4. But I am thinking specifically of the study I did on August 13 indicating the Rosebuds were projected to collect between 3.5 and 4.6 more Wins Above Replacement before the season’s end compared to the Wolverines. I don’t have time to repeat that study now, but when it was done the ‘Buds were 2.6 games out with 43 games left.  Since then they’ve gone 9 – 1 (ish) and have 33 games left — and they’ve gained 0.8 games on the W’s, sitting 1.8 games out.    So they’ve gotten more than 1/3 of the way to first place in about 1/4 of the time they had remaining on August 13.  So the Rosebuds should be rejoicing!
  5. But while the ‘Buds were going 9 – 1 (ish), the W’s were going 9 – 2 (ish).  And Portland dropped 0.6 games further behind — a 33% increase in their deficit in one day — on Thursday and as of Sunday morning had gotten none of that back.  So have the W’s achieved a 50% probability of winning the pennant?  I doubt it.  1.8 games is not a big lead.  You can lose it in 2 days in MLB, and in one in the EFL (albeit very rarely). But those three days… do they indicate a change in the two teams’ fortunes?
  6. Maybe. But the Rosebuds also will have at least $2.835 million to spend at the final managers meeting.  The W’s will only have $1,000,000.
  7. But the W’s are likely to have Eloy Jimenez, the #3 prospect in baseball by most ratings,  available for the first time in September. The Rosebuds d0n’t have a talent like that coming up out of their farm squad.
  8. But if the W’s have Eloy on an active roster this year, they will lose his services in 2023. Will one month now be worth a whole year when Eloy is 26 or 27?
  9. The Outs were considered to be on the verge of being on the edge of becoming a fringe contender in the pennant race in my August 13 post.  They were 6.5 games back, with a WAR projection advantage over the Wolverines of only 0.9 to 1.6 WAR.  They’ve spent 1/4 of their remaining time and have fallen a game further behind. It’s getting very hard to envision a scenario for the Outs to win the pennant.  (Kind of like the Mariners, alas!)
  10. So — the results of the last 12 days’ play indicate
    1. The Rosebuds are still on pace to take over first place, and
    2. The Rosebuds hit a lull the last three days that gives renewed hope to Wolverine fans, and
    3. The day-to-day fates of the Rosebuds and Wolverines seem to be in sync. Eerily so.  Creepily so.
    4. The Rosebuds have cash. The W’s don’t, much.  The W’s have an Eloy. They Rosebuds don’t.  The Rosebuds would love to see the Wolverines burn a year of Eloy’s contract, and would love it even better if they still beat the W’s this year.