League Updates

Diffy Q

August 29, 2019
3 Comments
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Yesterday, while walking across the George Fox Quad, I overheard a couple of students talking about one of their courses.

“Yeah, did you see we have to watch a video before every Diffy Q class?”

“No, I didn’t see that. I guess I better read the syllabus.”

“It’s ok. I didn’t watch it before class today and it didn’t matter. I’ll just watch later today.”

There were many interesting things about this conversation:

  1. How had the student not yet read the syllabus?
  2. Does not doing the homework before class really matter?
  3. This Diffy Q class seems to be very innovative, requiring videos instead of reading.

One of the things that may surprise you is that I actually knew what they were talking about when they said, “Diffy Q.” Let me backtrack – I know, as the attentive son of a math professor, that Diffy Q means differential equations. But, I don’t really know what the class is about.

I suppose 1 + 1 = 2 and 2 + 2 = 4 are different equations, but that is surely too easy to be a college math course. Maybe it is some kind of philosophical math class where at any given point 1 + 1 = 2 and also 1 + 1 = 3 – those are certainly different equations, and one of them seems to be truer than other, but maybe in another, different reality, the other could also be true?

In terms of the EFL, there is some differential equations in the stat known as run differential. I was perusing the standings this morning for the MLB, and notices that there are exactly 15 teams with a positive run differential and also 15 teams with a negative run differential. How is that for parity in the MLB. What about the EFL?

It turns out there are exactly 6 teams with a positive run differential and a negative run differential in the EFL. How about that for parity? Run differential is not necessarily an indication of a winning record – for instance, in the MLB there are 2 teams with a negative run differential and also a winning record (Phillies and Brewers) and one team (Reds) with a positive run differential but a losing record.

In the MLB, the largest positive run differential is the Dodgers at +224. In the EFL, the largest is the Rosebuds at 209. In the MLB, the closest team to a 0 difference is the Phillies at -8 and in the EFL the closest is Canberra at -9. For a little while this month the Drive were at -1, which was really exciting (maybe that is an overstatement).

The largest negative run differential in the MLB belongs to the Tigers at -259! We in the EFL come nowhere near that number, our greatest being -141 held by the front-runner to get the #1 EFL pick in the 2020 draft, the Balk.

These might not be the types of equations that the Diffy Q students are studying, but it’s about all the math I am cut out for this morning.

EFL Standings for 2019
EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Portland Rosebuds 87 48 .643 — 837.0 624.8
Flint Hill Tornadoes 83 52 .612 4.1 828.6 655.1
Old Detroit Wolverines 80 55 .591 6.9 782.6 646.7
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 73 59 .552 12.4 706.2 626.5
Peshastin Pears 71 64 .527 15.6 707.3 670.2
Haviland Dragons 70 64 .522 16.3 754.5 713.6
Canberra Kangaroos 68 67 .503 18.9 751.0 750.9
Kaline Drive 65 69 .485 21.3 638.5 660.8
Bellingham Cascades 60 72 .451 25.7 622.0 689.4
Cottage Cheese 59 73 .447 26.3 749.9 818.4
Brookland Outs 57 75 .434 27.9 658.1 753.1
D.C. Balk 54 81 .398 33 606.0 747.6
Portland: W, 10-6 (48 PA, .326, .354, .630; 4 ip, 3 er, 6.75 era) JD, JT, and AA led the way for the Rosebuds and their very fine offensive day (and yes, I find it offensive). No matter how much I say, it doesn’t change their approach; but I’ll say it again – this is just boring! Do something to make this a closer race so we have some excitement.
Flint Hill: W, 6-4 (36 PA, .257, .278, .629; 10.3 ip, 7 er, 6.1 era) That is a horrendous pitching line, but don’t worry! The most horrendous were benched so we won’t be impacted by their stats. Good news, right? It was the Tornadoes middle infield that made things happen last night, with Bogaerts and Hiura combing for 16 total bases and 3 HRs. Go, ‘Does!
Old Detroit: L, 8-9 (50 PA, .190, .320, .500; 4 ip, 8 er, 18.00 era) Ok, that pitching line is even horrendous-er, but at least Keller was only allocated 33%. That makes it sting less, right? It was the hulks of the Wolverines that led the way last night, with Devers and Schwarber combining for a pretty good (but not as good as the Tornadoes) 14 total bases, and Josh Bell joined in on the fun with 5 bases of his own. But only one other player on the team got a hit; you might say Jorge was the “Soler” contributor besides those three behemoths.
Pittsburgh: L, 4-7 (36 PA, .235, .278, .471; no pitching) The Alleghanys followed the Wolverines in terms of a couple players (Suzuki and Martinez) carrying the weight for the rest of the team. Their other hitters contributed a little more than Old Detroit’s did, but not much. And their pitchers just took the entire evening off, resulting in too many runs allowed.
Peshastin: L, 8-10 (45 PA, .350, .400, .550; 11.3 ip, 10 er, 7.94 era) The Pears decided to try the opposite offensive approach, getting a total of 14 hits on the day, led by the law firm Semien, Soto, Christian and Calhoun. But that pitching line – ouch! Sheffield made his second Mariner start against his former team, and they did not give him a warm welcome. And none of the other Pear pitchers wanted to help, either.
Haviland: W, 7-5 (28 PA, .333, .357, .630; 8.3 ip, 5 er, 5.40 era) If anyone in this league knows about diffy q it would be the Haviland owner. Yesterday he was also able to find the formula for winning, which included good hitting and ok pitching. I have no idea if this means anything, but 7 of yesterday’s Dragon players have a name (first or last) that is 4 letter long. That has to mean something, right? Throw it in the diffy q machine and see what happens.
Canberra: W2, L(-1), 16-6 (38 PA, .471, .526, .1.379; 1.7 ip, 0 er) Wow, I mean, wow! 16 hits as a team, half of them for extra bases, and less than 10 Ks for the batters. What a day!
Kaline: W, 5-2 (52 PA, .213, .250, .489; 8 ip, 2 er, 2.15 era) This is just like Tom – consistent but not flashy hitting, and good pitching to catapult the Drive to a win. They were lead, no surprise, but Aaron Judge and his powerful tears – 1 HR and 2 2Bs. Keep your team crying, Tom, and good things are bound to happen!
Bellingham: L, 4-8 (21 PA, .222, .333, .278; 1.7 ip, 1 er, 5.40 era) Apparently the Cascades wanted low-key evening. A few at bats, a few hits, but nothing requiring too much effort. A little pitching, but not a lot, and not awful but certainly not helpful. Just a nice, lazy summer evening.
Cottage: W, 8-8 (46 PA, .279, .304, .535; no pitching) Apparently the Cheese found a way around their dreadful pitching, at least for a day – just have no one pitch! And, voila! A win. (Don’t look at Cease’s line today, though, Dave). Jeff McNeil came back from his injury with a vengeance, with 3 hits including a double and a HR.
Brookland: “L,” 6-3 (24 PA, .368, .500, .368; 5.3 ip, 1 er, 1.69 era) The Outs for 7 singles and 5 walks, which is a pretty interesting way to score 6 runs. It’s called small ball, and people today say it doesn’t work – but, look! It worked for the Outs!
DC: W, 1-1 (31 PA, .214, .290, .357; 5 ip, 1 er, 1.80 era) The 1-0 Mariners loss I went to a couple of weeks ago was a really good game, so I assume this game was, too. Not a lot of scoring but a win nonetheless! Kole Calhoun and Ryan O’Hearn led the way for the Balk, and their bullpen came through to keep it close and eke out a win.
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2014
AL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
New York Yankees 88 47 .652 —
Flint Hill Tornadoes 83 52 .612 5.3
Old Detroit Wolverines 80 55 .591 8.2
Tampa Bay Rays 76 58 .567 11.5
Boston Red Sox 72 62 .537 15.5
Toronto Blue Jays 54 81 .400 34
Baltimore Orioles 44 89 .331 43
NL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Atlanta Braves 81 54 .600 —
Washington Nationals 74 58 .561 5.5
Philadelphia Phillies 69 63 .523 10.5
New York Mets 67 65 .508 12.5
Canberra Kangaroos 68 67 .503 13.1
D.C. Balk 54 81 .398 27.2
Miami Marlins 47 85 .356 32.5
AL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Minnesota Twins 81 51 .614 —
Cleveland Indians 78 55 .586 3.5
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 73 59 .552 8.1
Chicago White Sox 60 72 .455 21
Bellingham Cascades 60 72 .451 21.4
Kansas City Royals 47 87 .351 35
Detroit Tigers 39 91 .300 41
NL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
St. Louis Cardinals 73 59 .553 —
Chicago Cubs 71 61 .538 2
Milwaukee Brewers 68 65 .511 5.5
Cincinnati Reds 63 69 .477 10
Cottage Cheese 59 73 .447 14.1
Brookland Outs 57 75 .434 15.6
Pittsburgh Pirates 56 77 .421 17.5
AL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Houston Astros 87 47 .649 —
Oakland A’s 76 56 .576 10
Haviland Dragons 70 64 .522 17
Texas Rangers 65 69 .485 22
Kaline Drive 65 69 .485 22
Los Angeles Angels 64 71 .474 23.5
Seattle Mariners 56 78 .418 31
NL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Los Angeles Dodgers 88 47 .652 —
Portland Rosebuds 87 48 .643 1.2
Peshastin Pears 71 64 .527 16.8
Arizona Diamondbacks 67 66 .504 20
San Francisco Giants 65 67 .492 21.5
San Diego Padres 61 71 .462 25.5
Colorado Rockies 59 75 .440 28.5

3 Comments

  • Nice write up, and a very nice subject for the day. And a beautiful picture to highlight the topic although I’m sure everyone has noticed that the second and third differential equations are identical. Hmm…identical different(ial) equations!!

    I have a couple of comments:

    1) “differential” doesn’t mean “different” although I can see (actually for the very first time) why one might think that

    2) Unlike MLB teams, EFL teams NEVER underperform or outperform their run differentials. While the commissioner has never (at least since we’ve been in the league) explained this I’m pretty sure that the mysterious spreadsheets use run differentials to DETERMINE our records, filtered through the Jamesian Pythagorean formula. At least that’s what I think.

    • Look at that! I taught the 40+ year math professor something new today. I guess I can teach an old dog new tricks…

  • John is right: we use run differentials to compute w/l records. Not the raw size of the gap between runs scored and runs allowed, but the PROPORTION of runs scored to runs allowed. A team that scored 2000 and allowed 1800 runs would not be as good as a team that score 1000 and allowed 850.

    There is a teensy wrinkle, however. Because we lock every month’s stats at the end of the month, and then add them together, the season-long run differentials might not exactly match the season record.

    Imagine if you have one month where you outscored your opponents 1 – 0 for all ten games that didn’t get snowed out. Your record that month would be 10 – 0. If for the other 152 games you played your opponents even, scoring 750 runs and allowing 750, your predicted record over those 152 games would be 76 – 76. Add in the 10 games from your perfect (but very short) first month, and your season record would be 86 – 76.

    But if you outscored your foes 760 – 750 for the season and calculated the entire season’s record based on that, you probably would go 77 – 75. So it is possible to have small mismatches between your season run differential and your EFL record because we calculate each month separately and add them together — and not all months have the same number of games.