Someone asked me if I wanted to trade one of my pitchers for one of his outfielders. I do need an outfielder, and the offer wasn’t outlandishly unfair, so I told him I’d think it over.
Thinking it over usually means, in my case, making a fun spreadsheet or two. In this case, I only needed one: the first (that I know of) attempt to see how our teams look to FanGraphs Depth Charts’ 2023 projections.
So I set up the current rosters on a spreadsheet and inserted the current FGDC projection for each player, then added them up for each team — as if we had no more drafts (we do! At least 2!) or money (we have! ranging from $23,000,000 to $64,500,000) or trades (like the one I was offered) to go.
The result: an unconscionably early discovery of an unconscious team, leading a two-team race (except one of them will run out of money faster than most).
Here are the projections as of today
Team Off WAR P WAR TOTAL WAR (FG) Projected Record (approx)
Haviland Dragons 37.0 12.5 49.5 97 – 65
Old Detroit Wolverines 35.2 12.1 47.3 95 – 67
This looks like a barn-burning race for the top. The problem is — from my perspective — the W’s only have $35,000,000 to spend, with only 20 players on the roster. The Dragons have $48,150 to spend, and already have 22 players on the roster. Also, the Dragons have a 1st round pick 6 spots earlier than the Wolverines. So this may be the last time the Wolverines appear to be a serious threat to the Dragons.
Might the W’s position be better because more of their talent has access to playing time? Possibly: I did another study of EFL players in MLB’s Top 100 Now list, except it was only the 11th through 100th, because they haven’t revealed the top 10 yet. I gave the 11th player 90 points, the 12 player 89 points, and so on down to the 100th player who got 1 point. Here are the results, showing how many players each team had in the 11 – 100 section of the top 100, and how many points the team totaled:
| OD | CK | DC | HD | SS | FH | KD | PA | PR | PP | BC | |
| # | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pts | 338 | 309 | 273 | 264 | 257 | 199 | 135 | 99 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
Which looks very pretty for the Wolverines, except that:
a) The top 10 players are not included. Players like Judge (WAR, HD), Ohtani (SS) and Betts (SS). The W’s won”t have any of the top 10. They won’t be in first place in points once the top 10 are announced. My only consolation: all the EFL Top 10 players are already accounted for in the WAR projections.
After the top 2, there is a 5-team dogpile:
Team Off WAR P WAR TOTAL WAR (FG) Proj. W/L ______Cash on Hand
Portland Rosebuds: 23.1 15.0 38.1 86 – 76 $34,750,000
Salem Seraphim: 28.0 9.5 37.5 85 – 77 $43,250,000
Canberra Kangaroos: 27.9 8.7 36.6 84 – 78 $55,250,000
DC Balk: 24.1 11.5 35.6 83 – 79 $56,750,000
Flint Hill Tornados: 21.1 14.1 35.2 83 – 79 $40,000,000
Then we come to the teams who… have a wealth of opportunities to get better. They can really move the needle with some smart acquisitions. And most of them have great draft picks — the Pears even have two in the first round.
Team Off WAR P WAR TOTAL WAR (FG) Proj. W/L ______Cash on Hand
Pittsburgh Alleghenys: 21.3 8.5 29.8 77 – 85 $37,750,000
Peshastin Pears: 16.1 10.1 26.2 74 – 88 $50,750,000
Kaline Drive: 17.5 6.6 24.1 72 – 90 $64,600,000
Bellingham Cascades: 8.8 11.1 19.9 68 – 94 $23,000,000