I am an empiricist. I believe if something is true there will be evidence for it, explaining causes and charting effects. Today we will look at empirical evidence to answer a key question about the EFL: what causes a team to succeed.
Two opening comments:
- Note the standings and the results from yesterday’s games. There is a very strong inverse correlation. The worst day in the EFL happened to the first place team. The very best days happened to teams in 9th and 1oth place. The correlation isn’t entirely smooth — this is field research, not some kind of sterile, artificial lab environment. So there will be other causal factors complicating the data. But it is still a very strong correlation: the worse your team is, the better it will do.
- One of those intervening variables is the Trout Curse. See the Flint Hill comment.
- Another intervening variable is the Trout Line. Mike Trout occupies the bottom line in the Flint Hill stat sheet. He occupied that line for the Cheese, too, and in my memory at least, did as well for the Alleghenys. I call that the Trout Line, where teams in the know stash their best players. You can tell a lot about a team by who occupies its stat sheet bottom line, the Trout Line.
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EFL Standings for 2018
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Portland Rosebuds | 58 | 35 | .628 | — | 491.6 | 370.5 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 56 | 38 | .595 | 3 | 427.8 | 351.5 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 54 | 37 | .590 | 3.7 | 404.5 | 339.5 |
| Brookland Outs | 53 | 40 | .566 | 5.8 | 494.8 | 434.7 |
| Cottage Cheese | 50 | 43 | .540 | 8.2 | 469.9 | 432.7 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 49 | 42 | .535 | 8.7 | 487.3 | 459.0 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 50 | 44 | .533 | 8.8 | 409.9 | 379.0 |
| Kaline Drive | 48 | 47 | .504 | 11.6 | 423.8 | 414.3 |
| Peshastin Pears | 44 | 49 | .469 | 14.8 | 399.4 | 428.0 |
| Haviland Dragons | 43 | 52 | .455 | 16.2 | 405.0 | 446.2 |
| D.C. Balk | 38 | 53 | .414 | 19.7 | 386.9 | 462.4 |
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Portland: L, 3 – 6. (38 PA, .229, .289, .314; 14.7 IP, 8 er, 4.91 ERA) Sam Gaviglio, allocated 100%, triple chulked (1.7 ip, 6 er). German Marquez (50%) covered 6 innings with only 2 er. Jonathan Villar occupies the Trout Line for Portland. He was an uninspiring 0 for 3 with a walk… but then, see the Real Mike Trout Line for Flint Hill, below.
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Old Detroit: “W”, 5 – 5. (38 PA, .222, .263, .278; no pitching). The W’s have only 1 replacement AB, and it’s at first base. Free Dan Vogelbach and his 1.012 AAA OPS!! The man has 52 walks in 301 plate appearances, and only 40 strikeouts. Guess who occupies the Wolverines’ Trout Line, in Vogelbach’s absence: Kolten Wong. The day after he went 4 for 5 to wangle a 50% activation, he’s back to his usual performance: 0 for 3. Sigh. At least he didn’t strike out.
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Canberra: W, 3 – 2. (35 PA, .194, .286, .387; 7 ip, 2 er, 2.57 ERA). The Kangaroos are crawling back into the race a little bit at a time. Joey Lucchesi struggled in his 4 innings (2 earned runs), but relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Tim Mayza were sera mayza’n: 3 ip, 0 er. Trout Line denizen Starling Marte: a very nice 1 for 3 with a homer and a walk.
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Brookland: W, 6 – 2. (59 PA, .231, .322, .385; 15.2 ip, 4 er, 2.35 ERA). Once again, CJ Cron led his team’s offense, this time going 3 for 4 with a double and a homer. Cron is not the team’s leading hitter. That list goes Machado (.957 OPS), Aaron Hicks, Jose Martinez, Descalso, Schebler, Bellinger, Cron (.801 OPS). (And, miraculously, right behind Cron is Gregory Polanco at .800 OPS — the fans at home in Old Detroit will never believe that.) Carlos Rodon tossed 7 scoreless innings. Trout Line occupant Scott Schebler went 1 for 4 with a walk. Better than the real thing!
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Cottage: L, 12 – 15. (37 PA, .355, .459, .806; 9 ip, 12 er). Too bad about that pitching, featuring a chulk from Tyler Mahle (2.3 ip, 5 er) and a royal chulk from Yoshihisa Hirano (0.3 ip, 4 er). Because the hitting was superb at the Cottage yesterday. Only the pinch-hitters failed to reach base, and Mike Moustakas went 3 for 5 with two homers. Eric Thames filled the Trout Line yesterday: 1 for 4 with a double and two walks. That’s a 1.000 OPS.
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Pittsburgh: W, 7 – 3. (39 PA, .303, .410, .364; 17 ip, 4 er, 2.12 ERA) The Alleghenys sneaked back into the pivotal 6th place slot with a fine day at the plate. For example, they had twice as many free passes (6) as strikeouts (3). Ryan Yarbrough and Dereck Rodriguez combined for 6 scoreless innings, picking up the relatively laggard Lance Lynn and Luke Weaver who combined for a perfectly acceptable 11 ip, 4 er. In a very bold move, the Alleghenys have positioned Dansby Swanson on their Trout Line. You remember him, right? The can’t miss, Hall of Fame bound shortstop prospect stolen by the Braves (and the Alleghenys) from the Diamondbacks’ former management team? Well, yesterday Swanson filled the Trout Line with a hit and a walk in 4 plate appearances.
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Flint Hill: “W”, 2 – 2. (46 PA, .167, .239, .310; 8 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). Is it a curse? Name a team that has won a pennant with Mike Trout. The Tornados were in fifth place when they negotiated the trade for Trout. Two days later they were in 7th place. Soon after Trout joined the Tornado lineup on July 1, the T’s rose to 6th place. Yesterday, despite a “win”, they dropped back into 7th. I only believe in curses when there is hard scientific evidence for them, like there is for the winner’s curse at auctions (where the “winner” is the one who lost biggest by overpaying most). Mike Trout is the best active player in baseball, but … He only went 1 for 4, with a single.
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Kaline: W, 10 – 1. (45 PA, .300, .378, .650; 6 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). The best day in the EFL! And, of course, Jesse Winker’s 2 for 4 with a homer and a double (2.000 OPS) led the way from the Trout Line for the Drive. That and Trevor Williams’ 5 scoreless innings were the ticket for Kaline.
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Peshastin: W 2, L (-1); 9 – 1. (41 PA, .368, .390, .789; 8 ip, 1 er, 1.125 ERA) The second-best day in the EFL! Ozzie Albies is at the opposite end of the spreadsheet from the Pears’ Trout Line, but he had a great day with 2 homers in 4 ABs. Dan Straily did well, too, with his 6 ip, 1 er. Despite his position in the alphabet, Kevin Kiermaier was just above the Trout Line, going 3 for 5 with his own homer. And the Trout Line itself? Devon Travis: 1 for 3 with a walk. No shame in that!
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Haviland: W, 7 – 2. (31 PA, .320, .452, .520; 10 ip, 3 er, 2.70 ERA). The third best day in the EFL! Vincent Velasquez held ’em scoreless in 6 innings to set the tone. Brandon Nimmo OPSed 5.000 — but it was only a 3 RBI homer in a single plate appearance. The Trout Line in Haviland is occupied by Raimel Tapia: a double in two plate appearances. Worthy!
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DC: W, 4 – 4. (46 PA, .262, .319, .333; 11 ip, 6 er, 4.91 ERA) The good thing about science is it leads to practical solutions to relieve human suffering. Take the human suffering in DC, for example. Why haven’t they soared into the upper reaches of the standings? Is it competence? Hardly — Rob is good at so many harder things than the EFL. Is it virtue? I am unaware of even the slightest smirch on Rob’s reputation or character — something I cannot say for some other EFL owners whose teams are doing better. Is it looks? Now you’re being silly. Because science now has conclusively demonstrated what the Balk are doing wrong. Look at their sorry excuse for a Trout Line: Danny Valencia, going 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts. Clearly the worst Trout Line in the league! It’s such a powerful effect it overwhelms the stunning inverse correlation between place in the standings and performance on the field: even though the Balk are at the bottom of the standings, they did not have anywhere near the best day on the field.
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Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2018
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Boston Red Sox | 65 | 29 | .691 | — |
| New York Yankees | 60 | 31 | .659 | 3.5 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 56 | 38 | .595 | 9 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 50 | 44 | .533 | 14.9 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 48 | 44 | .522 | 16 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 49 | .462 | 21.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 26 | 67 | .280 | 38.5 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 54 | 37 | .590 | — |
| Atlanta Braves | 51 | 40 | .560 | 2.7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 51 | 40 | .560 | 2.7 |
| Washington Nationals | 46 | 46 | .500 | 8.2 |
| D.C. Balk | 38 | 53 | .414 | 16 |
| New York Mets | 37 | 53 | .411 | 16.2 |
| Miami Marlins | 39 | 56 | .411 | 16.7 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Cleveland Indians | 50 | 41 | .549 | — |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 49 | 42 | .535 | 1.3 |
| Minnesota Twins | 41 | 49 | .456 | 8.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 40 | 55 | .421 | 12 |
| Chicago White Sox | 31 | 61 | .337 | 19.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 26 | 66 | .283 | 24.5 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 55 | 38 | .591 | — |
| Chicago Cubs | 52 | 38 | .578 | 1.5 |
| Brookland Outs | 53 | 40 | .566 | 2.4 |
| Cottage Cheese | 50 | 43 | .540 | 4.7 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 47 | 44 | .516 | 7 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 43 | 49 | .467 | 11.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 41 | 52 | .441 | 14 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Houston Astros | 62 | 33 | .653 | — |
| Seattle Mariners | 58 | 35 | .624 | 3 |
| Oakland A’s | 52 | 41 | .559 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 47 | 46 | .505 | 14 |
| Kaline Drive | 48 | 47 | .504 | 14.1 |
| Haviland Dragons | 43 | 52 | .455 | 18.8 |
| Texas Rangers | 40 | 54 | .426 | 21.5 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Portland Rosebuds | 58 | 35 | .628 | — |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 51 | 42 | .548 | 7.4 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 50 | 42 | .543 | 7.9 |
| San Francisco Giants | 49 | 46 | .516 | 10.4 |
| Colorado Rockies | 47 | 45 | .511 | 10.9 |
| Peshastin Pears | 44 | 49 | .469 | 14.8 |
| San Diego Padres | 40 | 55 | .421 | 19.4 |