NOTE: I came back from the Thorns game, took a nap, and added some stats and comments to this post. In case you want to read it again!
How did the EFL do at identifying, drafting, and playing the breakout players of 2018? Let’s find out, using Baseball Prospectus’ article from Thursday listing the 5 biggest breakout players in four different categories. (I have updated the WARP through Thursday, since it seemed to be a bit stale in the article, and added fWAR to get a second opinion)
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ROOKIES 2017 WARP 2018 WARP fWAR
| Juan Soto HD | 0.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| Ronald Acuna OD | 0.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Shohei Ohtani OD | 0.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| Gleyber Torres PR | 0.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Jack Flaherty PP | 0.6 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
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LATE BLOOMERS 2017 WARP 2018 WARP fWAR
| Max Muncy OD | 0.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Miles Mikolas FH | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Brandon Nimmo HD | 1.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Max Stassi — | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Jesus Aguilar — | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
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BECOMING STARS 2017 WARP 2018 WARP fWAR
| Patrick Corbin — | 0.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| Kyle Freeland — | -1.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Mike Foltynewicz — | -0.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Blake Snell CK | 2.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 |
| Trevor Bauer — | 3.3 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
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BECOMING SUPERSTARS 2017 WARP 2018 WARP fWAR
| Matt Chapman DC | 2.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Alex Bregman CK | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| Javier Baez PP | 2.3 | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Mookie Betts PR | 5.6 | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Christian Yelich — | 2.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 |
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Notes:
- The EFL, constituting 36.667% of the MLB, employed 13 out of 20 of these players, for 65%. We’re basically twice as smart as the average MLB GM.
- Sure, Portland is winning the league, but Old Detroit won in finding and playing breakout players, 3 – 2. Which, I suppose, helps explain how the W’s managed to make it a race so long, against expectations.
- Actually, that went 3 to 2 to 2 to 2 to 2, since Canberra, Haviland and Peshastin also all had two breakout players.
- Next year, the Kangaroos will start the season with two 2018 breakout players (Snell and Bregman). So will Peshastin (Baez and Flaherty). Portland (Betts), Old Detroit (Muncy), Haviland (Nimmo), and Flint Hill (Mikolas) will each have one.
- The Balk will also have one 2018 breakout player, if they are still with us (Chapman).
- Probably it’s better to have the superstar (Chapman, Bregman, Baez, Betts) than the rookie or the breakout, since the superstar probably will play all season and is likelier to stay good. Too bad, Wolverines and Dragons.
- The Wolverines traded away the only superstar we didn’t employ (Yelich). Just one of maybe a half-dozen questionable decisions the W’s made that will apparently cost them the 2018 EFL championship. No pressure, Lewis Brinson. You just go ahead and be you.
- Hey, while you’re at it, Lewis, could you be the best you you can be? Thanks.
- Stassi, Aguilar, Freeland, Foltynewicz, and Bauer all used to be in the league, too. Maybe Corbin, too? I don’t remember him.
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Oh, yeah — you want standings. OK. You asked for it!
EFL Standings for 2018
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Portland Rosebuds | 95 | 52 | .649 | — | 801.8 | 575.8 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 95 | 53 | .643 | 0.7 | 752.0 | 549.1 |
| Brookland Outs | 82 | 65 | .560 | 13.1 | 768.3 | 686.9 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 82 | 65 | .555 | 13.9 | 681.7 | 613.6 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 80 | 67 | .542 | 15.7 | 775.1 | 718.9 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 77 | 71 | .522 | 18.6 | 694.2 | 657.7 |
| Haviland Dragons | 74 | 73 | .501 | 21.7 | 709.0 | 698.6 |
| Cottage Cheese | 70 | 77 | .476 | 25.4 | 699.6 | 732.6 |
| Kaline Drive | 70 | 77 | .475 | 25.5 | 643.1 | 677.3 |
| Peshastin Pears | 68 | 79 | .464 | 27.2 | 632.1 | 681.2 |
| D.C. Balk | 65 | 82 | .441 | 30.6 | 628.2 | 710.8 |
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Portland: “L”, 6 – 3. (67 PA, .233, .313, .350; 13.3 ip, 4 er, 2.70 ERA). The Tornados’ patina of invincibility got a tiny chip in it Friday when the Tornado’s feared offense went a little meek. A meek offense spread over 67 plate appearances in a single day (!) can do a lot of damage to an opponent’s hopes and dreams. .
Old Detroit: W, 11 – 4. (49 PA, .333, .388, .600; 13 ip, 6 er, 4.15 ERA). When I got home from work Friday I laid down for a nap but had the Nats-Braves game on. In my semi-lucid intervals in what was otherwise a wonderful Nats nap, I saw two important things. One was Max Scherzer melting down, the key point being when he walked the opposing pitcher to load the bases with two out in the bottom of the second inning. Two runs scored after that, and then four more in the fourth. Scherzer threw more than 100 pitches in those four innings, giving up 6 earned runs. I saw it as the nail on the Wolverines’ coffin, the last of my starters to put up truly terrible numbers. But Walker Buehler and Shawn Armstrong stepped up later in the evening combining on a complete game shutout to salvage the situation.
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I’ll tell you about the second thing later.
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Brookland: L, 1 – 3. (33 PA, .133, .212, .233; 1 ip, 0 er). One of the reasons I am so sure the Rosebuds will win is the massive quality depth they’ve assembled. The Outs were just as deep but have not gone out and traded for so many other teams’ expiring contracts and so have not built on their depth the way the ‘Buds did. This means the Outs are vulnerable to the porous lineups MLB teams use in September. Regulars disappear from lineups in favor of prospects, people get injured and don’t bother trying to come back, etc. And your team maybe gets just barely enough PA to keep the replacements mostly at bay if you’re lucky. Or only one inning of pitching, straining your bank account of extra innings you’ve been stashing away.
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Canberra: “W”, 2 – 5. (54 PA, .149, .286, .277; no pitching). It’s not much better to get almost twice as much hitting as you need, if it’s replacement level work. But it was still good enough for the ‘Roos nudge themselves 0.2 games closer to the Outs.
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Pittsburgh: W, 3 – 3. (49 PA, .186, .286, .302; 7.7 ip, 11 er, 12.91 ERA). Marco Estrada was worse than Scherzer: 2.7 ip, 8 er, a neat triple chulk. Shane Greene got a save but coughed up two more runs in his inning, another chulk. The hitting wasn’t anything special, very close to replacement level, although Jurickson Profar continues to advertise how shrewd the Pittsburgh management is: the twice-rejected former top prospect went 3 for 4 with a homer: a nice 2.250 daily OPS.
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Flint Hill: W, 6 – 2. (39 PA, .324, .410, .441, 15 ip, 5 er, 3.00 ERA). These numbers would be the mark of an EFL champion if it were a routine occurrence. But Carlos Santana doesn’t go 3 for 3 most days, with a walk thrown in. Adalberto Mondesi doesn’t walk, single and homer in 5 trips most times. Maybe next year.
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Haviland: W, 11 – 5. (49 PA, .333, .429, .738; 1.7 ip, 0 er, 0.000 ERA). These are also good numbers, but they don’t have the full complement of pitching a champion needs on the average day. Asking Yasiel Puig to homer twice a day all the time is a bit much. ‘
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The other thing I was watching in the Nats-Braves game yesterday was the showcase being put on by Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto. Soto took the spotlight first, blasting a homer early in the game. Acuna later narrowly missed his own homer, but got a triple to go with his double and two singles. At one point in the game the two had identical OPSes for the season — .951, as I remember. I hope we somehow find a way to keep both in the EFL next year. I volunteer to draft them both! But I think the computer is going to be all over both of them, so it might be difficult.
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Well, actually, if I put my Commissioner hat back on more firmly, I notice how it might not be such a great thing if these guys are on our teams. It would just make it that much harder not to dominate our MLB rivals. So maybe it’s a good thing if we let them run free.
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Cottage: L, 2 – 7. (35 PA, .219 .286, .250; 2 ip, 1 er, 4.50 ERA). I’m guessing (without looking) the Cheese ran up some replacement innings Friday, accounting for that replacement-looking runs-allowed figure to go with the replacement-simulating batting line.
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Kaline: W, 7 – 3. (46 PA, .316, .435, .368; 6 ip, 1 er, 1.50 ERA). I am so envious of the Drive, Tornados, and Dragons. The Wolverines sure could use days like this one. In the drive’s case, they put together a team OPS of .803 with only one player over 1.000 (Mike Zunino, 1.250 on a double and a single in 4 plate appearances). Everyone who came to the plate more than once got aboard safely at least once. Zunino’s double was the only extra-base hit, but there were 11 singles, 7 walks and a HBP. And Brian Johnson had a good start, and got some strong backup from two relievers. Sure must be nice.
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Peshastin: W, 6 – (-2). (37 PA, .306, .324, .583; 14.7 ip, 2 er, 1.23 ERA). Aggh! Another lowly team doing better than mine. By contrast with the Drive, the Pears only got 1 walk to go with 5 singles, 4 doubles, and two homers. But they put it with all that wonderful pitching! (Flaherty and Eflin each with 6 innings and only 1 earned run.) See, Wolverines, it is possible to hit and pitch well on the same day. Why not give it a try. (It’s already too late for Saturday… the W’s already have a 10 ip, 7 er pitching line. Sigh.)
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DC: “W”, 2 – 3. (30 PA, .185, .267, .333; no pitching). Omar Narvaez homered, Matt Chapman doubled, and the team hit three singles, walked twice and got hit by a pitch. That’s it.
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Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2018
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Boston Red Sox | 101 | 47 | .682 | — |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 95 | 53 | .643 | 5.8 |
| New York Yankees | 91 | 56 | .619 | 9.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 80 | 66 | .548 | 20 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 77 | 71 | .522 | 23.7 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 65 | 82 | .442 | 35.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 42 | 105 | .286 | 58.5 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Atlanta Braves | 83 | 64 | .565 | — |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 82 | 65 | .555 | 1.5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75 | 71 | .514 | 7.5 |
| Washington Nationals | 74 | 74 | .500 | 9.5 |
| New York Mets | 69 | 78 | .469 | 14 |
| D.C. Balk | 65 | 82 | .441 | 18.2 |
| Miami Marlins | 57 | 90 | .388 | 26 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Cleveland Indians | 82 | 65 | .558 | — |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 80 | 67 | .542 | 2.3 |
| Minnesota Twins | 67 | 80 | .456 | 15 |
| Detroit Tigers | 60 | 87 | .408 | 22 |
| Chicago White Sox | 58 | 89 | .395 | 24 |
| Kansas City Royals | 51 | 96 | .347 | 31 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Chicago Cubs | 86 | 61 | .585 | — |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 85 | 63 | .574 | 1.5 |
| Brookland Outs | 82 | 65 | .560 | 3.7 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 81 | 67 | .547 | 5.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 72 | 74 | .493 | 13.5 |
| Cottage Cheese | 70 | 77 | .476 | 16 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 63 | 85 | .426 | 23.5 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Houston Astros | 92 | 55 | .626 | — |
| Oakland A’s | 90 | 58 | .608 | 2.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 81 | 66 | .551 | 11 |
| Haviland Dragons | 74 | 73 | .501 | 18.3 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 73 | 75 | .493 | 19.5 |
| Kaline Drive | 70 | 77 | .475 | 22.1 |
| Texas Rangers | 63 | 84 | .429 | 29 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Portland Rosebuds | 95 | 52 | .649 | — |
| Colorado Rockies | 81 | 66 | .551 | 14.4 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 81 | 67 | .547 | 14.9 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 78 | 70 | .527 | 17.9 |
| San Francisco Giants | 69 | 79 | .466 | 26.9 |
| Peshastin Pears | 68 | 79 | .464 | 27.2 |
| San Diego Padres | 59 | 89 | .399 | 36.9 |