A few days ago I made first mention of what has been a dreadful month of September for almost every EFL team in terms of offensive output. Today I want to look more closely at this phenomena, in hopes of learning more of how it is impacting each team specifically.
August September
| Bellingham | 159 | 110 |
| Canberra | 150 | 130 |
| Cottage | 129 | 130 |
| DC | 124 | 90 |
| Flint Hill | 160 | 96 |
| Haviland | 150 | 77 |
| Kaline | 137 | 70 |
| Old Detroit | 146 | 91 |
| Peshastin | 130 | 140 |
| Pittsburgh | 115 | 94 |
| Portland | 138 | 76 |
The table below shows the difference for each team thus far:
| Haviland | -73 |
| Flint Hill | -64 |
| Kaline | -63 |
| Portland | -62 |
| Old Detroit | -55 |
| Bellingham | -49 |
| DC | –34 |
| Pittsburgh | -21 |
| Canberra | -20 |
Where are Cottage and Peshastin, you ask?
| Cottage | +1 |
| Peshastin | +20 |
There are a couple of things to consider when analyzing the data:
1) Most team have played fewer games in September than in August
2) There are still three or four games remaining for each team
But if our current Runs Scored per Game stays the same, you can expect each team to add between 9 and 18 runs to their total. And if you were to extend September a few more games to equal roughly the number of August games played (an additional 2-4 games) you could maybe add another 6 to 15 runs per team, depending on the team.
I don’t have time to do this for every team, but for Flint Hill, this would mean a difference of approximately 25 more runs scored this month, which would still have us at a deficit of 39 or 40 runs compared to last month. That is 1.5-2 runs per game of lost offense, which is difficult to make up on the pitching side. That would equal and ERA 2 runs lower than what the Tornadoes had in August. Tomorrow we will look at the pitching differences from August to September to see if there is, as Ron suggested earlier this week, a correlation (fewer runs scored by our teams should mean a marked decrease in runs allowed).
Suffice it to say, if your last name is Johnson you team has had a terribly offensive month at the plate (see what I did there, Ron?).
That +20 you see next to the Peshastin name explains a lot about their rise in the standings. The questions remain, though – will it continue through this weekend, and will it be enough to earn a surprise EFL championship this season?
EFL Standings for 2020
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 32 | 25 | .553 | — | 283.4 | 270.2 |
| Peshastin Pears | 30 | 27 | .522 | 1.8 | 304.5 | 285.5 |
| Kaline Drive | 29 | 27 | .514 | 2.2 | 236.3 | 224.3 |
| Haviland Dragons | 28 | 28 | .506 | 2.7 | 259.1 | 252.0 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 27 | 30 | .474 | 4.5 | 290.0 | 317.8 |
| Cottage Cheese | 27 | 30 | .473 | 4.6 | 295.3 | 312.5 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 24 | 33 | .427 | 7.2 | 276.5 | 319.6 |
| D.C. Balk | 24 | 33 | .418 | 7.7 | 248.2 | 292.8 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 22 | 35 | .381 | 9.8 | 252.1 | 322.4 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 20 | 37 | .357 | 11.1 | 258.3 | 346.4 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 17 | 40 | .293 | 14.8 | 255.0 | 395.3 |
Flint Hill: DNP, (-2)-0 (38PA; 10IP)
| AVG: 0.289 | OBP: 0.289 | SLG: 0.368 | OPS: 0.658 |
| ERA: 1.80 | WHIP: 1.100 |
The Tornadoes had an off day, which was helpful in terms of rest, but created a tiny bit more anxiety about the prospect of the Pears’ final push. Flint Hill batters did decently, and compared to recent output, it was downright respectable. Willi Castro (see, he is good, Dave!) went 3 for 5 with a HR to salvage our BA and SLG, which was otherwise pathetic without him. The pithing was, once again, stellar, led by Kevin Gausman who tossed 6IP and gave up 2ER.
Peshastin: W, 10-6 (49PA; 2.3IP)
| AVG: 0.302 | OBP: 0.388 | SLG: 0.581 | OPS: 0.969 |
| ERA: 0.00 | WHIP: 0.870 |
I believe I was mildly maligned when I suggested the Pears were still in the hunt, but look, here they are, inching even closer to the top with three games left to play. Did they accrue replacement SP innings last night? Yes, they did. Is it possible they will accrue some more this weekend? Very likely. But will it matter if their hitters continue to score 10 runs a game? No, it won’t. 4 batters collected 2 hits last night, with Willie Calhoun’s 2 for 4 with a 2B and HR the best line of them all. Yimi Garcia and Genesis Cabrera both pitched in relief, and neither gave up a run.
Kaline: “W,” 2-3 (30PA: 14.6IP)
| AVG: 0.185 | OBP: 0.267 | SLG: 0.259 | OPS: 0.526 |
| ERA: 4.32 | WHIP: 1.438 |
The Drive finally earned a win this week, but it was a fake EFL win, which I don’t think really helps matters in the long run. I had mistakenly said they and the Dragons would play two games yesterday, however their DHer is Saturday. So there is still a small chance of something miraculous happening, I think. But yesterday, there were no miracles. Kevin Pillar went 2 for 5 and is the only Drive hitter with a September BA over .300 or an OPS over .800. And newcomers Kwan Hyung Kim and Dallas Keuchel combing for 12 IP and 2 ER, but longtime Drive Michael Fulmer gave up 4 runs in 2.3IP.
Haviland: L, 2-4 (31PA; 20.4IP)
| AVG: 0.192 | OBP: 0.290 | SLG: 0.346 | OPS: 0.636 |
| ERA: 4.85 | WHIP: 1.569 |
The Dragons have lost their flame, I believe. Yesterday’s showing dropped them nearly 3 games behind the leading Tornadoes, and there might not be enough time to make up the difference. There will definitely have to be a radical change in their offense if that difference is going to shrink at all. Like we talked about above, the Dragon offense has chilled this month, at exactly the wrong time. Dylan Carlson was the lone bright spot, going 2 for 4 with a 2B and a HR. Usually the pitching is able to keep the team afloat, and there was a lot of pitching yesterday, but it was only average and not excellent. Well, Alex Reyes, Pablo Lopez and Chad Green were excellent, together pitching 7 innings and giving up 1 run. But the other three pitchers (Jesus Luzardo, Kris Bubic and Christian Javier) together threw 12.2 innings and gave up 10 runs.
Bellingham: DNP, 1-(-3) (41PA; 6.3IP)
| AVG: 0.278 | OBP: 0.341 | SLG: 0.389 | OPS: 0.730 |
| ERA: 4.29 | WHIP: 1.270 |
Well, look here! The Cascades have restored order to the top of the BCCCDC Cup standings (the Roos are ruining the bottom of the standings). Bellingham jumped over Cottage on an off day due to good days from Justin Turner (2 for 4 with a 2B) and Hanser Alberto (2 for 4 with a 2B and a SB), and good pitching from Mike Fiers (5IP, 2ER). With a .1 game lead over the Cheese, will they be able to hold on? It’s difficult to choose between Andre and Dave, because both deserve the Cup, so we’ll just cheer both of them on in hopes that they end in a virtual tie. I know they say a tie is like kissing your sister, but I think in this case, a tie would be like sharing a hug with your new father-in-law, which sounds pleasant enough to wish for it, I think.
Cottage: L, 2-9 (32PA; no pitching)
| AVG: 0.167 | OBP: 0.188 | SLG: 0.367 | OPS: 0.554 |
I think I see why Bellingham leapt over the Cheese yesterday. JD Davis went 2 for 5 with a 2B, and Yoan Moncada added a HR, but that was about it from the plate for the day. No pitchers appeared which didn’t help things, and now the Cheese will have to fight tooth and nail (or is it string and wedge?) to overcome the Cascades in the final three games of the season. So you might as well just go for the tie, right?
Canberra: W, 8-1 (19PA; 7IP)
| AVG: 0.389 | OBP: 0.421 | SLG: 0.944 | OPS: 1.365 |
| ERA: 1.29 | WHIP: 0.714 |
Ron’s fears of being left behind were, in fact, legit. The Roos made sure of that yesterday, but getting excellence (if not volume) from the plate, to go along with excellent from the mound. Only 4 batters came to the plate, but they combined for 7 hits on the day, which is 2 more than the Wolverines got with almost 3 times as many batters appearing in their game. Alex Bregman was a single shy of the cycle, going 3 for 5 with a 2B, 3B, and HR. Vladito chipped in another 3 hits, including a HR. From the mound, David Peterson went 7IP and gave up only 1 run, perhaps his best outing of the season. Now 2.6 games ahead of the Wolverines, I think we can almost certainly call Ryan the winner of the Mock the Mock Cup. Congrats!
DC: W, 3-(-3) (39PA; 15IP)
| AVG: 0.237 | OBP: 0.256 | SLG: 0.263 | OPS: 0.520 |
| ERA: 0.60 | WHIP: 1.000 |
Take a look at that pitching line! It appears DC is not giving up hope of restoring order in the BCCCDC Cup, though there is work to be done to pass the Roos and then CC and BC. But it is possible! Starters Ian Anderson and Alex Cobb combined for 12.7 IP, giving up only 1 run. Adalberto Mondesi went 4 for 4 with 2 SBs, as he attempts to recoup some of the value lost to his team by his lackluster performance all season.
Old Detroit: DNP, (-2)-(-5) (29PA; 5IP)
| AVG: 0.185 | OBP: 0.241 | SLG: 0.370 | OPS: 0.612 |
| ERA: 1.80 | WHIP: 0.600 |
The Wolverines managed to shave off more Runs Allowed than they shed Runs Scored, even on an off day. Will Smith continued his torrid September (he leads OD with a .990 OPS this month), going 2 for 4 with a 2B. The rest of the team combined for 3 more hits, which led to runs being lost. But fear not! Walker Buehler spun a gem (though only 4 innings), giving up 0 runs while striking out 6. The Wolverines are kind of in no man’s land right now, and aren’t danger of falling lower then 9th, but also not really likely to climb into 8th. I guess I should find some really nice things to say about them, though, because they will be doing the final update of the season on Sunday…so, I really enjoyed you dream post, Ron! Particularly the conversations between two unknown EFL owners, who I imagined to be Phil (the Facebooker) and Ryan (the Explainer).
Pittsburgh: DNP 1-2 (37PA; 0IP)
| AVG: 0.314 | OBP: 0.351 | SLG: 0.514 | OPS: 0.866 |
| ERA: 0.00 | WHIP: 0.000 |
It looks as though the Alleghenys have righted their ship for the final stretch of river in front of them. Their hitting was, by September EFL standards, excellent. Dominic Smith went 3 for 5 with 2 2Bs, and Jose Altuve remembered he’s able to hit without the aid of a trash can, going 3 for 5 with a 2B and a HR. The pitching line looks solid, but it wasn’t. Brad Boxberger didn’t record an out and gave up 2 runs. Like the Wolverines, the Alleghenys are stuck in a relative no-man’s land, and will most likely stay in 10th no matter the last three games.
Portland: L, 3-9 (13PA; .3IP)
| AVG: 0.200 | OBP: 0.385 | SLG: 0.200 | OPS: 0.585 |
| ERA: 30.00 | WHIP: 6.667 |
The battle with the Pirates for the #1 pick got a little less intense after the Rosebud day yesterday. It would take something out of the ordinary for the Rosebuds to lose it, but you never know in the EFL, right? The Rosebuds collected 2 hits (Solak and Taylor), and had one pitcher appear (Rodon) for 1/3 of an inning and give up 1 earned run.
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2020
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 37 | 20 | .649 | — |
| New York Yankees | 32 | 25 | .561 | 5 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 32 | 25 | .553 | 5.5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 27 | .526 | 7 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 24 | 33 | .421 | 13 |
| Boston Red Sox | 22 | 35 | .386 | 15 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 22 | 35 | .381 | 15.3 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Atlanta Braves | 34 | 23 | .596 | — |
| Miami Marlins | 29 | 28 | .509 | 5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 28 | 29 | .491 | 6 |
| New York Mets | 26 | 31 | .456 | 8 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 24 | 33 | .427 | 9.6 |
| D.C. Balk | 24 | 33 | .418 | 10.2 |
| Washington Nationals | 23 | 34 | .404 | 11 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Minnesota Twins | 35 | 22 | .614 | — |
| Chicago White Sox | 34 | 23 | .596 | 1 |
| Cleveland Indians | 33 | 24 | .579 | 2 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 27 | 30 | .474 | 8 |
| Kansas City Royals | 24 | 33 | .421 | 11 |
| Detroit Tigers | 22 | 33 | .400 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 20 | 37 | .357 | 14.6 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Chicago Cubs | 32 | 25 | .561 | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 28 | 26 | .519 | 2.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 28 | .509 | 3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 29 | .482 | 4.5 |
| Cottage Cheese | 27 | 30 | .473 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 18 | 39 | .316 | 14 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Oakland A’s | 34 | 22 | .607 | — |
| Kaline Drive | 29 | 27 | .514 | 5.2 |
| Houston Astros | 29 | 28 | .509 | 5.5 |
| Haviland Dragons | 28 | 28 | .506 | 5.7 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 31 | .456 | 8.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 25 | 31 | .446 | 9 |
| Texas Rangers | 19 | 38 | .333 | 15.5 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 40 | 17 | .702 | — |
| San Diego Padres | 34 | 22 | .607 | 5.5 |
| Peshastin Pears | 30 | 27 | .522 | 10.2 |
| San Francisco Giants | 28 | 28 | .500 | 11.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 25 | 31 | .446 | 14.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 22 | 34 | .393 | 17.5 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 17 | 40 | .293 | 23.3 |
Jamie:
Thanks for the kind words about my dreamy update Thursday. It was fun to write. But Ryan cannot be one of the unknown commentators — they speak of him in the third person.
I wanted all the owners to be able to identify themselves with one or the other. That’s why only one of them clicks away to look at food photos. I didn’t have anyone specifically in mind, but I sort of generally thought they might be any pair of Johnsons, or Dave and Andre — or anyone, really.
By the way, there’s a pretty good chance you put the Wolverine/Allegheny race to bed prematurely. That’s only a 1.3 game lag, smaller than the Pears/Tornados deficit, and only about 1/3 as wide as the Rosebuds’ distance from the Alleghenys, a race you refused to call because “you never know in the EFL, right?”
Exactly right.