A half-baked BP forecast for 2022 – The Official EFL Web Site

While I was watching the Newberg School Board meeting tonight – having to watch them seems to be my eternal punishment for my misdeeds – I played with Baseball Prospectus’ team tracker to extract its PECOTA prognostications for our teams.

For some reason only the predictions for our hitters were available. Below I will post each roster’s results, showing each batter’s projected bWAR. Note: players who did not play in MLB last year do not show up on team tracker, so you may have some more WAR in your pocket.

But here are our team total offensive WAR, per BP, as projected today:

DC: 27.1

Old Detroit: 25.5

Cottage The Team Formerly Known as Cheese: 25.3

Portland: 20.7

Peshastin: 19.7

Haviland: 17.7

Canberra: 17.1

Flint Hill: 16.7

Kaline: 12.4

Pittsburgh: 10.3

Bellingham: 9.0


Bellingham Cascades
	Name		AB	BB	SO	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Randy	Arozarena	522	53	169	0.245	0.415	0.335	0.750	20.2	2.3
	Kyle	Farmer	435	25	85	0.250	0.392	0.311	0.703	6.1	0.4
	DJ	LeMahieu	593	67	87	0.284	0.411	0.360	0.771	27.5	3.1
	Marcell	Ozuna	250	31	60	0.264	0.473	0.349	0.822	7.8	0.8
	Jorge	Polanco	542	44	106	0.262	0.422	0.322	0.744	20.2	2.4
	TOTAL		2,342	220	507	0.260	0.411	0.333	0.753	81.8	9.0



Canberra Kangaroo
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Javier	Báez	586	65	22	0.229	0.278	0.407	0.685	9.2	1.5
	Jackie	Bradley Jr.	481	54	12	0.211	0.296	0.355	0.652	0.9	0
	J.D.	Davis	163	24	6	0.243	0.346	0.436	0.782	3.4	0.3
	Mauricio	Dubón	139	14	3	0.249	0.306	0.372	0.678	2	0.3
	Mitch	Garver	337	47	12	0.226	0.319	0.417	0.737	14.1	0.8
	Vladimir	Guerrero Jr.	625	112	33	0.301	0.389	0.543	0.932	47.8	4.8
	Nathaniel	Lowe	564	68	17	0.248	0.345	0.410	0.755	12.3	1.1
	Austin	Meadows	565	84	21	0.247	0.329	0.447	0.776	15.3	1.6
	Austin	Nola	393	47	8	0.264	0.344	0.398	0.742	18	1.6
	Isaac	Paredes	91	10	2	0.245	0.344	0.392	0.736	3.1	0.3
	Kyle	Tucker	562	93	24	0.277	0.349	0.496	0.845	33.1	3.7
	TOTAL		5,070	686	177	0.250	0.331	0.425	0.767	171.5	17.1



DC Balk
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Pete	Alonso	575	97	34	0.268	0.357	0.531	0.888	32.5	3.5
	Xander	Bogaerts	594	83	20	0.276	0.362	0.458	0.819	33.9	3.4
	Matt	Chapman	598	90	28	0.217	0.314	0.438	0.752	17.2	1.8
	Santiago	Espinal	465	57	7	0.267	0.328	0.379	0.708	7.8	1.6
	Bryce	Harper	613	117	31	0.271	0.400	0.527	0.927	50	5.0
	Enrique	Hernández	577	81	20	0.241	0.327	0.421	0.748	16.7	2.0
	Sam	Hilliard	456	50	17	0.214	0.292	0.404	0.696	3.5	0.7
	Nico	Hoerner	473	59	9	0.262	0.336	0.387	0.723	14.3	1.6
	Danny	Jansen	275	39	9	0.235	0.326	0.408	0.734	10.7	1.6
	Ryan	McMahon	567	69	21	0.248	0.330	0.441	0.770	15.4	1.6
	Adalberto	Mondesi	399	46	11	0.236	0.281	0.403	0.684	5.6	0.6
	Sean	Murphy	455	60	16	0.224	0.314	0.405	0.719	16.6	2.1
	Myles	Straw	538	69	4	0.264	0.342	0.348	0.690	13.1	1.6
	TOTAL		6,585	917	227	0.248	0.330	0.422	0.765	237.3	27.1



Flint Hill Tornados
	Name		AGE	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	FRAA	WARP
	Ozzie	Albies	25	582	0.266	0.327	0.459	0.786	26.7	1.5	3
	Mookie	Betts	29	619	0.269	0.369	0.479	0.848	34.8	4.5	4.2
	Bo	Bichette	24	614	0.286	0.339	0.465	0.804	33.2	-0.3	3.5
	Joey	Gallo	28	584	0.209	0.352	0.48	0.832	27.4	6.5	3.6
	Kevin	Newman	28	477	0.265	0.313	0.37	0.683	8.1	-0.7	0.8
	Keibert	Ruiz	23	344	0.267	0.331	0.42	0.751	15.8	-0.3	1.6
	TOTAL		26	3,220	0.26	0.336	0.442	0.79	146	11.2	16.7



Haviland Dragons
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Luis	Campusano	30	3	0	0.242	0.312	0.400	0.712	0.9	0.1
	Jake	Cronenworth	566	71	11	0.266	0.342	0.410	0.752	20.5	2.2
	Jonah	Heim	247	25	6	0.233	0.288	0.363	0.651	2.4	0.9
	Ramón	Laureano	500	73	16	0.242	0.320	0.414	0.734	18.5	2.2
	Brandon	Lowe	605	95	26	0.242	0.334	0.456	0.790	24.1	2.6
	J.T.	Realmuto	538	79	20	0.256	0.338	0.445	0.783	23.5	3.2
	Brendan	Rodgers	565	68	18	0.262	0.318	0.432	0.750	15.7	1.6
	Amed	Rosario	583	77	12	0.271	0.315	0.407	0.722	16	1.5
	Kyle	Schwarber	552	74	29	0.233	0.342	0.469	0.812	26.3	2.9
	Gio	Urshela	514	66	13	0.257	0.307	0.396	0.703	9.2	0.5
	TOTAL		4,700	631	151	0.252	0.322	0.417	0.750	157.1	17.7



Kaline Drive
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Willy	Adames	563	72	19	0.249	0.329	0.428	0.757	17.7	2.3
	Michael	Conforto	587	73	22	0.254	0.358	0.445	0.804	26.6	2.8
	Andrés	Giménez	435	53	11	0.238	0.305	0.388	0.693	6.8	0.9
	Kyle	Lewis	417	51	13	0.237	0.323	0.395	0.718	6.2	0.7
	Yermín	Mercedes	64	7	2	0.267	0.323	0.433	0.756	2.1	0.2
	Daulton	Varsho	522	67	20	0.255	0.334	0.457	0.79	23.9	2.5
	Jesse	Winker	498	74	18	0.276	0.376	0.468	0.844	27.3	3
	TOTAL		3,086	397	105	0.252	0.334	0.425	0.771	110.6	12.4



Old Detroit Wolverines
	Name		AB	BB	SO	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Austin	Allen	199	11	53	0.255	0.431	0.302	0.733	6.5	0.9
	Byron	Buxton	466	27	130	0.256	0.467	0.302	0.768	21.5	3.1
	Carlos	Correa	487	61	100	0.272	0.46	0.358	0.819	32.8	3.4
	Rafael	Devers	548	50	132	0.266	0.485	0.336	0.821	27.4	2.8
	Tommy	Edman	567	37	83	0.27	0.405	0.322	0.727	19.1	2.2
	Luis	García	333	19	67	0.259	0.39	0.301	0.691	5.8	0.4
	Ke’Bryan	Hayes	532	49	120	0.254	0.397	0.325	0.722	7.2	1.1
	Keston	Hiura	205	19	91	0.224	0.43	0.315	0.745	0.8	0
	Eloy	Jiménez	540	39	156	0.267	0.482	0.322	0.804	22.7	2.4
	Gavin	Lux	465	53	114	0.254	0.41	0.334	0.744	18.2	2
	Jurickson	Profar	476	59	78	0.238	0.38	0.333	0.713	13.5	1.1
	Austin	Riley	514	44	141	0.27	0.501	0.338	0.839	27.3	3
	Will	Smith	405	54	91	0.241	0.45	0.352	0.802	25.5	3.1
	TOTAL		5,737	522	1,356	0.257	0.433	0.326	0.769	228.3	25.5



Peshastin Pears
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Jo	Adell	483	64	20	0.245	0.302	0.446	0.748	10.6	1.3
	Joey	Bart	318	33	9	0.228	0.286	0.383	0.669	4.1	1.1
	Willie	Calhoun	518	65	18	0.256	0.318	0.427	0.745	10.3	1.1
	Willi	Castro	197	20	4	0.247	0.302	0.389	0.691	2.9	0.3
	Jazz	Chisholm Jr.	569	73	23	0.247	0.313	0.453	0.766	20.9	2.2
	Ryan	Mountcastle	619	80	23	0.249	0.306	0.429	0.735	4.7	0.3
	Anthony	Rendon	558	85	19	0.271	0.378	0.46	0.838	33.6	3.5
	Victor	Robles	225	30	5	0.236	0.328	0.396	0.724	7	0.8
	Max	Schrock	127	13	2	0.252	0.309	0.37	0.679	0.3	0.1
	Juan	Soto	611	117	28	0.3	0.452	0.541	0.993	67.9	7.7
	Mike	Zunino	339	47	18	0.205	0.287	0.435	0.722	8.6	1.3
	TOTAL		4,564	627	169	0.251	0.331	0.432	0.777	170.9	19.7



Pittsburgh Alleghenys
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Bobby	Dalbec	481	67	26	0.236	0.313	0.476	0.789	10	1
	Garrett	Hampson	540	59	10	0.234	0.296	0.361	0.658	1.3	-0.2
	Max	Muncy	588	103	29	0.253	0.376	0.485	0.861	32.5	3.6
	Cristian	Pache	335	35	7	0.227	0.281	0.36	0.641	-1.4	-0.2
	Luis	Robert	531	75	22	0.281	0.341	0.493	0.834	32.6	3.8
	Dominic	Smith	314	39	9	0.252	0.318	0.413	0.731	1.7	0.1
	Christian	Vázquez	428	48	10	0.258	0.32	0.389	0.709	11.7	2.2
	TOTAL		3,217	426	113	0.249	0.32	0.423	0.754	88.4	10.3



Portland Rosebuds
	Name		PA	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Dylan	Carlson	563	69	17	0.244	0.326	0.416	0.742	14.6	1.6
	Rhys	Hoskins	620	107	33	0.244	0.351	0.492	0.843	23.2	2.5
	Ryan	Jeffers	244	30	8	0.207	0.286	0.37	0.656	3	0.8
	Max	Kepler	595	87	20	0.229	0.322	0.411	0.733	13.5	1.4
	Tyler	O’Neill	568	75	31	0.25	0.317	0.491	0.808	26.6	3
	Gary	Sánchez	478	73	25	0.217	0.314	0.444	0.758	19.7	2
	Corey	Seager	548	73	20	0.283	0.36	0.478	0.838	35.3	3.8
	Nick	Senzel	268	34	8	0.276	0.344	0.452	0.796	13.7	1.4
	Nick	Solak	468	54	12	0.26	0.33	0.401	0.731	12.6	1.3
	Tyrone	Taylor	352	42	11	0.239	0.309	0.41	0.719	6.5	0.8
	Luis	Urías	556	72	14	0.249	0.347	0.402	0.749	16.5	2.1
	TOTAL		5,260	716	199	0.245	0.328	0.429	0.768	185.2	20.7



Votaw Vandals
	Name		PA	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	WARP
	Ronald	Acuña	599	84	150	0.281	0.395	0.563	0.957	56	5.6
	Alec	Bohm	572	47	131	0.253	0.320	0.403	0.723	9.5	0.9
	Yandy	Díaz	589	76	101	0.270	0.369	0.406	0.775	23	2.3
	Adolis	García	552	28	171	0.222	0.270	0.405	0.676	0.7	0.8
	Alejandro	Kirk	354	35	52	0.267	0.348	0.432	0.78	14.6	1.4
	Khalil	Lee	74	9	25	0.212	0.339	0.373	0.712	1.9	0.2
	Zach	McKinstry	29	2	7	0.234	0.304	0.377	0.681	0.2	0
	Jeff	McNeil	402	29	51	0.283	0.352	0.443	0.795	19.5	1.9
	Francisco	Mejía	248	15	44	0.257	0.318	0.421	0.739	8.7	0.7
	Shohei	Ohtani	563	75	171	0.263	0.369	0.548	0.917	39.9	4.2
	Pedro	Severino	162	13	40	0.239	0.311	0.397	0.708	3.9	0.2
	Abraham	Toro	321	28	48	0.252	0.333	0.412	0.744	10.3	1.1
	Trea	Turner	616	45	108	0.295	0.355	0.482	0.836	39.9	4.1
	Alex	Verdugo	603	52	93	0.276	0.347	0.420	0.768	19.1	1.9
	TOTAL		5,684	538	1,192	0.264	0.340	0.440	0.793	247.2	25.3