Who won the Rookie Draft?
It depends on how you define “win.”
On February 24 I posted projections for our teams, based simply (and unreliably) on the total fWAR projected for players on our rosters. Here is how things stood then:
Team Off WAR P WAR TOTAL WAR (FG) Proj. W/L Cash on Hand
Haviland Dragons 37.0 12.5 49.5 97 – 65 $48,150,000
Old Detroit Wolverines 35.2 12.1 47.3 95 – 67 $35,000,000
Portland Rosebuds: 23.1 15.0 38.1 86 – 76 $34,750,000
Salem Seraphim: 28.0 9.5 37.5 85 – 77 $43,250,000
Canberra Kangaroos: 27.9 8.7 36.6 84 – 78 $55,250,000
DC Balk: 24.1 11.5 35.6 83 – 79 $56,750,000
Pittsburgh Alleghenys: 21.3 8.5 29.8 77 – 85 $37,750,000
Peshastin Pears: 16.1 1 0.1 26.2 74 – 88 $50,750,000
Kaline Drive: 17.5 6.6 24.1 72 – 90 $64,600,000
Bellingham Cascades: 8.8 11.1 19.9 68 – 94 $23,000,000
It looked like the Dragons and the Wolverines were poised to run away with the season. But look at all that cash some of you people has squirreled away! And also, there were some trades, some injury — and biggest of all, we had our Rookie Draft!
As of this evening, here is what I found using the same unjustifiable, oversimplified methodology:
Team Off WAR P WAR TOTAL WAR (FG) Proj. W/L Cash on Hand
Haviland Dragons 42.4 14.1 56.5 104 – 58 $21,750,000
Old Detroit Wolverines 33.9 14.3 48.2 96 – 66 $11,000,000
Canberra Kangaroos 35.8 10.8 46.6 94 – 68 $20,750,000
Flint Hill 30.7 15.4 46.1 94 – 68 $12,750,000
Salem Seraphim 34.8 9.9 44.7 92 – 70 $11,750,000
Peshastin Pears 31.8 11.0 42.8 90 – 72 $ 9,000,000
DC Balk 29.7 13.0 42.7 90 – 72 $33,500,000
Portland Rosebuds 28.3 12.4 40.7 88 – 74 $21,250,000
Pittsburgh Alleghenys. 26.5 10.3 36.8 84 – 78 $17,750,000
Kaline Drive 24.3 10.9 35.2 83 – 79 $27,850,000
Bellingham Cascades 9.4 11.9 21.3 69 – 93 $28,500,000
So who won the Draft? If you are asking “who is ahead after the draft” it’s clear the Dragons won the draft. They extended their lead from 2.2 wins to 8.3 wins. That’s a HUGE gain, nearly quadrupling their margin of safety. Anyone who can extend their lead that much in just over a week is winning something.
If you are asking “who gained the most since Feb 24”, here are the leaders:
Team Pre-WAR Post-WAR Change WAR.
Kaline 24.1 35.2 +11.1
Flint Hill 35.2 46.1 +10.9
Peshastin 32.1 42.8 +10.7
Canberra 36.6 46.6 +10.0
Salem 37.5 44.7 +7.2
DC 35.6 42.7 +7.1
Pittsburgh 29.8 36.8 +7.0
Haviland 49.5 56.5 +7.0
Portland 37.3 40.7 +3.4
Bellingham 19.9 21.3 +1.4
Old Detroit 47.3 48.2 +0.9
Go Drive! Biggest gain, almost 1.4 wins per day!
Who won? Either the Dragons or the Drive.
Who lost? The Wolverines, for sure. We didn’t even gain a win. Of course, part of that was the season-ending injury to Gavin Lux which cost the W’s 2.8 in fWAR. So Old Detroit gained a whopping 3.7 WAR during the draft itself. Whoopee! They spent almost 70% of their available budget and still didn’t gain a game in their predicted standings, and now face being road kill to half the league, since the “W’s” don’t have the cash to protect themselves.